Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

Anyone have the long range canadian?

[Ivanhater]

Should be out soon..I'll post it asap


These make sense after the GFS rammed it into a high
Canadian 144



Nogaps

[Ivanhater]

Long range Canadian into the Bahamas

[South Texas Storms]

ivan can i have a link to where you get the long range canadian?
also is that low in the gulf the same one that the nogaps is showing?

[ROCK]

Long range Canadian into the Bahamas

whats in the GOM? NOGAPS sees something also....

[Ivanhater]

The gom thing just popped up..here is the link to the long range Canadian

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[Vortex]

I agree Ivan...All the globals have a similar solution except the GFS. Bring on the ECM....

[ROCK]

keeps it weaker also unlike the GFS who wants to blow it up......still sold on the recurve but it going to be a close call how close it gets....

[chaser1]

If in fact either or both of these African waves pan out, kudos to the GFS model for having sniffed them out for some time now. Variances exist with regards to timing, however several other models have more recently jumped on board with regard to eventual development. Perhaps some tweaking has permitted the GFS model to leap ahead of the Canadian model which seemingly "detects" development first ( only because the CMC attempts to develop about 1 million tropical cyclones per season...).

On the other hand I would trust model accuracy of larger scale synoptic upper air with regards to forecast motion to the CMC model, about as likely as I would believe the NAM handling such low latitude tropical systems ( which I don't ). Admittedly, in past years I have seen GFS "get it right" often enough - especially with smaller tropical systems. I have felt that over time, Euro, UK, and even Nogaps have been as good, and at times even better - especially with larger envelope systems. Now, this year we have the GFS "re-tooled", and I'm just not convinced all the bugs are worked out yet.

Over the last few days, the GFS model has been pretty consistent with these systems re-curving, however I am a little reluctant to be so quick to accept this as a given. Accuracy of long distance forecasting not withstanding, I am becoming increasingly puzzled by the persistent tendency for the GFS model to continue to forecast such motion, where corresponding 500mb flow would seem to indicate 594 heights in some cases just north and northwest of a supposed system. Even assuming that any organized low does congeal farther north around 15N, GFS models show an earlier NW motion than what the heights and orientation of the mid level ridging would seem to justify. For the last few GFS runs, this is something I have found a little perplexing. After tonight's 0Z run however, I am really trying to figure out why a east/west oriented 594 high ( which is NOT being eroded by any dropping short wave ) is acting as a "magnet" and causing a depression or storm to turn north into it. I mean, it's not as if the models have a tropical cyclone rounding the westernmost point of such a ridge with an approaching weakness.

I am becoming increasing confident that any near term CV developing system, will NOT be recurving. Unless a mid latitude trough appears at some point downstream ( which could very well occur ), I'd be especially vigilant during the upcoming few days, if I'm living anywhere in the Northern Leewards or Puerto Rico.

[Florida1118]

That was well thought out. Good post. I hope for Lifes sake these do recurve (and miss Bermuda)

[chaser1]

.....thanks "Florida". Thank God for spell check though, otherwise you'd have to have been schooled in pig-latin to be able to make any sense of it!

[dwsqos2]

Meh...the Canadian is hardly exciting; verbatim it would mean another week of delay in any development across the entire tropical Atlantic. I really don't care if this fishes. I would just like to see a storm at this point as opposed to another invest or another one of the lovely 12-18 hour cyclones of the past 6 weeks.

[Vortex]

Good points chaser...ECM rolling out shortly

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro 144 hours

[Ivanhater]

[chaser1]

Canadian seems to be maintaining a decent handle on timing of 1st and 2nd wave, and is remaining consistent with westward motion. While its nice to see 1,000 isobars for any given system, I have learned to not trust this model for intensity unless its modeling some mid latitude baroclinic low. Does it detect and maintain an "identity" and what is the general deep layer flow that it's model guidance indicates. That is all I care to see, and once again it has done so nicely. When the Euro is in tandem with other global models, I'm feeling pretty confident..........HOWEVER, "it" is not confident, in that unlike a few prior runs...the recent runs have a less defined system coming and going. Until it better locks on and maintains one identifiable low or another, one can't have quite as much confidence in any perceived track. Between 0 hr's. and 240 hr's, the model see's a system, then becomes broad, then something pops up downstream again. Maybe the system is less vertically defined. I have little doubt that the Euro will soon "latch on" to one or both near term waves again, and thus have a cleaner and more identifiable maintained track.

Now, if CMC, Euro, and Nogaps all soon stop identifying any form of developing system...., well then something's up. Hey Atlantic, don't make us have to get on a plane. If necessary, we'll all go on over and kick Uncle SAL's butt!

[KWT]

ECM shows a recurve still, CMC takes it towards the Bahamas and the GFS recurves but further west then some runs.

As for why the GFS lifts it out, note the upper energy just to the north of the high, there is a weakness there.

Also worth noting the models still look interesting for the 2nd wave, not too strong but the track looks further west.

[ColinDelia]

[cycloneye]

No mention yet at 8:05 AM TWD.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1102.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Here is a station in Senegal. Nothing out of the ordinary except for the plenty of thunder in the overnight hours and some wind directions that changed.Pressures didn't jolt a lot.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOTT.html

Code: Select all

EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 8 AM (12) Aug 16 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) WSW 5 
 7 AM (11)  No Data     
 6 AM (10) Aug 16 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) SW 5 
 5 AM (9) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) SW 5 
 4 AM (8) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) WSW 5 
 3 AM (7) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) SW 5 thunder
 2 AM (6) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) W 5 thunder
 1 AM (5) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) WSW 5 thunder
 Midnight (4)  No Data     
 11 PM (3) Aug 15 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) W 7 thunder
 10 PM (2) Aug 15 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) SW 5 thunder
 9 PM (1) Aug 15 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) SW 5 thunder
 8 PM (0) Aug 15 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) SW 5 thunder
 7 PM (23) Aug 15 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) W 2 thunder
 6 PM (22) Aug 15 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) W 5 thunder