Global model runs discussion

[thetruesms]

I was looking forward to this season for so many months, and now its mid August and things are pathetic. I won't ever trust the season predictions again.

If you're disappointed with a season in mid-August, you haven't been paying close attention to hurricane seasons

Maybe early October, but usually the season really dies off by then. Of course, there are a few exceptions, but I have a feeling that most of the season will be over by mid October.

You're setting the bar a little bit early - the season's secondary peak is in mid-October

[gatorcane]

Maybe early October, but usually the season really dies off by then. Of course, there are a few exceptions, but I have a feeling that most of the season will be over by mid October.

Here in Southern FL, October ranks first above August and September for the number of hurricane strikes:

From the article published by NWS Miami:
"In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season."

link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf

Of course this isn't the thread to really talk about this kind of stuff so I am digressing. Let's try to get back on topic of the long/medium range model runs.

[cycloneye]

Well, as Ivan said,strange run. There goes up wave #1 and the second wave is almost nonexistant. Is there but nothing that develops.

[cycloneye]

The run ends with wave #2 developing but taking the same track as wave #1.Below is the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Here is the 06z GFS loop. Same track for wave #1. Wave #2 develops but not strongly and then other lows appear on the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

The 06z GFS really sets up the 2nd wave VERY far north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168m.gif

At 18N...I'm betting it doesn't end up that far north, its probably got the right call for the first wave but I'm fqar from convinced about the 2nd, esp given the ECM has the same wave down at 10-12N!

[ROCK]

GFS insists in plowing a strong storm into the ridge.....whereas the CMC keeps it weaker and west almost to 60W with a strong ridge.....dry stable air to the north could keep this in check until farther down the MDR.....still think it will recurve though...not sure about the other one behind

[KWT]

Agreed, I'd be very surprised if the CMC is right for the first wave, interestingly it strengthens the 2nd one quicker and that one recurves, so looks like the type of pattern where anything weak till 50-60W becomes a big threat down the line but if it strengthens enough before hand it recurves.

Given CMC was way too far west with Colin we could be seeing something similar with this one.

[SFLcane]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

[KWT]

Now that wold be a real pattern change that would open up much of the Eastern parts of the states...

The models tried to bring this pattern in before, maybe they were just too progressive the first time round.

[SouthFloridawx]

Troughing is definitely flattening out and the ridge definitely builds in. The system progged to develop in the East Atlantic is now pushed into the Carolina's. Looks like a complete pattern shift. I guess we'll see.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F17%2F2010+06UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All

[Fego]

I have read some of you guys writing about an ensemble model. What is ensemble? What is the difference between an ensemble run and a regular model run? Thanks

[SouthFloridawx]

When does the 12Z ECM come out?

[srainhoutx]

When does the 12Z ECM come out?

Around 3 PM EDT.

[SouthFloridawx]

When does the 12Z ECM come out?

Around 3 PM EDT.

Thank You...

[ColinDelia]

SW Gulf and near CV Islands

Probably long-term fiction but hey, this is the thread for that.

These pop up on the GFS at 324 hours. The low near CV tracks westard until the end of the model run. The low in the SW gulf is still there at the end of the run. Both 1006 mb lows.

[KWT]

Who knows the GFS did pick up the signal for 95L in that sort of range so it can happen sometimes, usually the GFS will pick up on a weak system then slowly ramp it up as time gets closer

[Steve]

That's a very, very ugly pattern for the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, the United States and Bahamian Kingdom. It's a 180 for what we're used to from the GFS. What's interesting though, despite the ridge stretching from Scananavia to Texas, there's no block above 60N which is the pattern the experts have been hinting at. I guess it doesn't matter that far north if you have a surface high across the entire ocean, but it's different from what the anticipated pattern shift had been showing. Who knows? Maybe that low is transient or progressive without much impact farther south.

Anyway, ug-ly.

[ColinDelia]

Tc forms in the boc at 324 hours on 12z gfs. At 384 hours, the end of the run it is 1mb short of a hurricane (995 mb) on Saffir Simpson scale.

[flwxwatcher]

It's in the longer range but todays 12Z EURO shows a storm approaching the Bahamas And moving West. It also looks in the shorter term to try and develop A home brew system.





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