ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[KWT]

Hmmm some models show a slightly sharper turn then the other models turning this one into MS rather then LA...interesting stuff!

[AFWeather]

yeah i was wondering the same thing. the regional shows a tx/la landfall and the global shows a ms landfall. which one is usually more reliable?

Well they should be the same thing. The regional only goes out to 48 hours focused on North America. The global goes out to 144 hours (240 hours on the 00z run)

The global version of the GEM uses a much greater grid-point spacing than the regional product. As you said, the regional GEM can focus on whatever sub-domain it wants (in this case, North America), and the grid-point spacing is much less (higher resolution). This would theoretically make the regional product more accurate than the global one, but unfortunately it's not all that simple in the world of computer models.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 12z 30H

[KWT]

Pretty much total agreement now, not much in the way off differences on the models, maybe the CMC is stronger then the rest but that won't happen now I'd have thought.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

UKMET analyzed ex-05L as a tropical depression. Takes it to a moderate TS.




571

WTNT80 EGRR 160600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2010 30.2N 87.0W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2010 29.1N 87.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2010 29.1N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2010 28.1N 90.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.08.2010 28.6N 91.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 18.9N 107.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2010 18.9N 107.3W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2010 20.9N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2010 21.5N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160430



[petit_bois]

HWRF has possible TS coming ashore in Mississippi
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation