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srainhoutx wrote::D I got a nice heavy shower finally this afternoon. Not alot, but after nearly two weeks of nothing but HOT, I'll take.
Now I understand the local OCM's calling for higher pops and lower temps late next week. I wish they would explain better why they are showing these things. I got a whole 0.01" of spit from the cloudiness yesterday. At least it was a little cooler. Can't say that for today!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010
.DISCUSSION...
HOT...HOT...HOT...ITS ANOTHER SCORCHER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
RUNNING ALL IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM 108-114. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA. HEAT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WENT AHEAD WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AS TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR AS TODAY.
ONLY A LUCKY FEW WILL GET A COOLING SHOWER ON MONDAY. BUT SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR THE MID WEEK.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS WE MOVE INTO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
FIVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL EMERGE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. ALL GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVING IT TOWARDS THE
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND NAM A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. NHC HAS UPGRADED
THEIR OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM TO 30% OR MEDIUM CHANCE THIS WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE HUNTERS
ARE SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS IF IT DOES DEVELOP OR NOT THIS
WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LATEST HPC QPF TOTALS HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO
5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA. 2 TO 3
INCHES FOR SWLA AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR SE TX AT 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR CWA WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST PW
VALUES ARE UP TO 2.8 IN WHICH IS A VERY TROPICAL. DEPENDING ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
FORECAST AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. STAY TUNED.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE UP NORTH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONCE AGAIN OVERHEAD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GO BACK DOWN TO MORE CLIMO AND TEMPS WILL HEAT
BACK UP.
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros 
What's new? Official high yesterday was 100f. Weatherbug nearest to me hit 102F. I just know it was brutal with the hi running 108f-113f in our area. Could definitely use a cool down and some rain!!
vbhoutex wrote:Another day another heat advisory.
Watching storms in East TX heading SW hoping they hold together as the come our way.
Strong complex of thunderstorms has developed along SW moving outflow boundary over E TX/W LA and is progressing SSW at 10-15mph. So far storms appear to be holding together very well as they move into this superheated and very unstable air mass over the region. 100pm temperatures range from 102 at College Station to 97 at IAH which is 4-6 degrees above sounding trigger temps. Orange, TX is reporting a staggering 113 degree heat index and Bay City 112 at 100pm.
Given tremendous surface heating in progress over the region expect incoming convective complex to arc toward San Jacinto through Chambers counties by mid afternoon and then possibly approach Montgomery, Harris, and Galveston counties by late afternoon. Meso models are also showing development along the seabreeze over the coastal and first tier inland counties (Gulfward of US 59). More likely event will be strong SW moving outflow boundary will collide with a sluggish inland moving seabreeze with new development WSW across the first two tier coastal counties through this evening. Threat for damaging winds will be possible given the strong surface heating and sub-cloud base dry layer.
Note: Recon is heading out to investigate ex TD 5 about 100 miles S of the FL panhandle at this time. Visible loop shows a well defined low level circulation with nearly all convection removed to the SW side. Will see what the plane finds this afternoon…I cannot find any surface winds over about 15mph…but the plane usually finds stronger winds they will sample the convection SW of the center.
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