Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

More then enough of a weakness still to scoop this system up *but* its a bit of a tighter affair because after that 2nd upper trough comes through the door is slammed shut for upper troughs...and if that happens then if it doesn't get scooped up things get interesting.

The 12z is actually suggestive of a Bermuda threat as well...

[ConvergenceZone]

did the 2nd one dissapear? I don't see it on the latest image..

[canes04]

still not buying the recurve yet. This could form south of 15N and move w to wsw for a few days.

[BigA]

Got a bit farther west than in previous runs...64 west or so, rathern than recurving east of 60 like in previous runs.

[cycloneye]

If this track verifies in real time it would not be a fish because of Bermuda. What a change from previous runs having it much more closer to the NE Caribbean than before. Now lets see how the other models do.

[BigA]

12Z CMC run is weaker than GFS, farther to the south, with wave number 2 becoming a hurricane and plowing westward at 144 hours.

[Vortex]

at work, can someone post the 12z cmc and nogaps. Thanks...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

It is the oposite from GFS in terms of developing the second wave behind more than the first one and the track is strait westward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Folks, you have to remember these runs of the GFS are out 228+ and there has been quite a shift west the past couple of runs. Now look how close the first system gets to the NE Leewards! At 204 hours (below), it is much closer to the Leewards than previous runs. If HIGH builds into the Western Atlantic around 240+ hours from now it will turn back west. Remember Frances? If you go back and look at the NHC discussions, they indicated recurve at 5 days out.....look what happened. I'm not saying this is going to do the same but just be cautious about what you are seeing in the long-range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[KWT]

Gotta love the CMC changing things round totally with the 1st wave being weak and the 2nd being the one that goes mental...hitting the CV Islands pretty strongly...

Then again I think the CMC maybe latching onto a totally different wave to the GFS given the location.

[hurricaneCW]

Although the 1st wave is still very likely to recurve, it could get a lot further west than I thought. It could possibly pull a Fabian and impact Bermuda, while the one behind it pulls an Isabel and impacts land. Again, it's more long range speculation, but the 1st wave is just now coming offshore.

[Florida1118]

Folks, you have to remember these runs of the GFS are out 228+ and there has been quite a shift west the past couple of runs. Now look how close the first system gets to the NE Leewards! At 204 hours (below), it is much closer to the Leewards than previous runs. If HIGH builds into the Western Atlantic around 240+ hours from now it will turn back west. Remember Frances? If you go back and look at the NHC discussions, they indicated recurve at 5 days out.....look what happened. I'm not saying this is going to do the same but just be cautious about what you are seeing in the long-range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

I agree. They said the same thing with Jeanne but look how that turned out. Not that its their fault and Im not blameing them or criticizing.

[KWT]

The GFS ensembles are quite a way west, if this one doesn't develop nearly as fast as the GFS is progging then things may become more interesting hurricanecw!

[hurricaneCW]

The GFS ensembles are quite a way west, if this one doesn't develop nearly as fast as the GFS is progging then things may become more interesting hurricanecw!

How far west are they? And if they are further west, it usually indicates that the operational might be too far east and that future runs could take the storm further west.

[KWT]

Only a weak reflection but that far out, its a pretty good signal there will be a storm:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

When do we think we will get an invest on this? Maybe as early as tomorrow?

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,we get the official invest in the next 1-2 days to begin running the GFDL, HWRF and the BAMS. In the meantime, the test invest continues.

[KWT]

Alot of stable air coming in on the northern side for sure at the moment given that, but there is certainly no center down at 14.2, any circulation is between 16-18N...pretty much bang on where the GFS has progged it...

[Frank2]

Per the above photo it seems to be an early developer - those usually mean an early recurve (Hurricane Frances, 1980), so we'll see what the CV obs show when it passes through there...

[cycloneye]

This is from the 2:05 PM TWD:

If I am reading this paragraph correctly, the wave in front that we were thinking it was that way now is merged with the area behind. Or I am wrong?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1800.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 23N24W TO 9N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS
CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AS WELL AS SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO E OF THE
AXIS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSION CONVECTION
W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.