ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[N2Storms]

[quote="Brent"][quote="tolakram"]Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Regardless of the shear maps reality shows a highly sheared system with little or no convection to the north and east.[/quote]

Yep, I'm here in Pensacola Beach and it's a near perfect day other than a couple of 5-minute showers so far. The Gulf is calm too with barely any waves. Never would know a potential TD is not far away.[/quote]



Yep...been a "Chamber of Commerce" type day here in Panama City also (not that I'm complaining)...

[WX5DBZ]

Waves are averaging about 4ft at the moment. It is most likely higher under the convection. Recon should have the full scoop in just a bit. So far pressure appears to be 1009mb.

[brunota2003]

Wow...for the first time, it appears ex-TD5 actually has a well defined center. The winds around where they went through were in the 20s, versus a few days ago when they were in the 5s

[Aric Dunn]

well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

[Steve]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

[Ivanhater]

Center looks south of Pensacola and looks good. Recon finding enough to upgrade to a TD. Might just get a name out of this.

[DTWright]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

I'm no expert, but I'd have to say it's a good bit further east of SELA than 60 miles at the present time

[Stormcenter]

I would agree with that.

Center looks south of Pensacola and looks good. Recon finding enough to upgrade to a TD. Might just get a name out of this.

[Aric Dunn]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

sorry actually forgot to multiply by 2.. lol its approx 120 miles from the peninsula so at its current estimated speed it be about 24hours..

[JonathanBelles]

According to recon (where the only wind shift is). Its 132 miles out, and is moving at 6mph. That would be 22 hours if it goes due west.

[tailgater]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

127 miles to then mouth of the Miss. river.

[DTWright]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

sorry actually forgot to multiply by 2.. lol its approx 120 miles from the peninsula so at its current estimated speed it be about 24hours..

I was wondering Aric. I knew you were much better than that.

[Steve]

Gotcha Aric. That's about what I figured too (+/- 24 hours).

[tigergirl]

So what can we be expecting from EX TD05 here in the South Lafourche area? I'm guessing possible heavy rain will be the main threat?

[Aric Dunn]

>>well its finally moving at a trackable pace the last 3 hours or so... looks about due west around 5kts.. which would put it over SE LA in about 12 hours.. or riding along the coast ..

60 miles east? Is it really that close?

sorry actually forgot to multiply by 2.. lol its approx 120 miles from the peninsula so at its current estimated speed it be about 24hours..

I was wondering Aric. I knew you were much better than that.

Thanks for catching that.. I forgot to re check it..

[tailgater]

Has anyone else noticed that the Upper levels seem to be getting better over Southern Ala. and NW fla., you can see the cirrus outflow developing.

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

I would go out on a limb here and say has this actually had good upper support it could have easily made it TS already considering only a few hours after the center begin to reform offshore last night it organized pretty quickly then the shear it .. lol nothing new of course

[wxman57]

So what can we be expecting from EX TD05 here in the South Lafourche area? I'm guessing possible heavy rain will be the main threat?

Just lots of rain. No significant wind.

[WX5DBZ]

Has anyone else noticed that the Upper levels seem to be getting better over Southern Ala. and NW fla., you can see the cirrus outflow developing.