it is slightly farther north now so lets see if its far enough away from the shear to see some convection fire over top of it without being blow off..

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brunota2003 wrote:Well, recon sent out a VDM.
No upgrade yetABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
Aric Dunn wrote:here is the nice exposed center ... its not extremely well defined as it continues to try to keep up with the convection so it has to keep reforming every new burst.. but well defined enough for an Upgrade especially with at least some solid 25 to 30kt sfmr from recon.
it is slightly farther north now so lets see if its far enough away from the shear to see some convection fire over top of it without being blow off..
[img]removed by me[/img]
bayoubebe wrote:It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?
bayoubebe wrote:It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?
petit_bois wrote:bayoubebe wrote:It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?
if it moves due west it DOES hit SE LA...
Wx_Warrior wrote:Getting some nice hard rain here in Beaumont. Band is moving fast..South about 20.
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