ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

KWT · #2161 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:05 pm

Some good convection rotating around that circulation over the Central Gulf at the moment, going to be some pretty nasty weather over the Central Gulf over the next 36hrs as the system moves westward, development or not rain and flooding is the issue.

#2162 Postby **Ikester** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:08 pm

This is just my opinion, but it appears this has a slight northerly component to it via looking at radar. IF** that's the case, the HWRF model will be correct with a landfall in MS.

KWT · #2163 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:14 pm

Hmmm not sure Ikester, looks to me like its still mainly west heading towards SE LA.

Aric Dunn · #2164 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:21 pm

KWT wrote:Hmmm not sure Ikester, looks to me like its still mainly west heading towards SE LA.

well we will know on this next pass by recon ... but from the first pass to the second that had the VDM was just slightly north of west but the center is sort of bouncing around as new convection fires ...

but from my estimates its not moving very fast again... but seems westerly to slightly north of west..

#2165 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:23 pm

Looks to me that it is moving WNW now.

petit_bois · #2166 Postby **petit_bois** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:24 pm

HWRF has it in Mississippi tomorrow
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
boarderline TD/TS

KWT · #2167 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:26 pm

I remember yesterdays run tried to take it into MS but that run never got far enough south in the first place looking back...

Yeah north of west looks probably about right now.

Aric Dunn · #2168 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:26 pm

The only things that is hard to tell is latest 1km visible seems to have sifted slightly N of last VDM .. just have to wait since its not vertically stacked at all.. lol

NOLA2010 · #2169 Postby **NOLA2010** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:27 pm

Why didn't they upgrade at 5 if recon had found strong enough winds?

#2170 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:28 pm

I doubt TD5 will regenerate at all. It doesn't look like it's worth the time and day.

Yet another blustery and wet day along the central Gulf coast, though you guys have gotten a ton of those lately.

Aric Dunn · #2171 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The only things that is hard to tell is latest 1km visible seems to have sifted slightly N of last VDM .. just have to wait since its not vertically stacked at all.. lol

actually just estimating from this minob with the lowest pressure and wind

212200 2911N 08708W 9773 00271 0078 +242 +236 257007 008 012 000 03

then it has not moved since the last VDM just slightly north.... the steering is rather weak..

Swimdude · #2172 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:29 pm

Whew, we just had 35 mph wind gusts here in West Houston as this outer band comes through. Can't believe it's spawning bands like this. Temperature dropped about 10-15 degrees and the rain just started coming down heavy about the time I started writing this sentence, haha. Can't remember the last time I've seen storms approach from the northeast in the Houston area! :lol:

At least we're getting a nice relief from the heat...

KWT · #2173 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:29 pm

NOLA2010 wrote:Why didn't they upgrade at 5 if recon had found strong enough winds?

Convection wasn't quite organised enough to justify an upgrade, whilst I'd have personally upgraded and I can understand the NHC holding back and making sure it doesn't weaken again.

Aric Dunn · #2174 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:41 pm

these minobs appear to be the wind shift

212630 2924N 08712W 9768 00272 0075 +245 +237 219005 005 006 000 03
212700 2926N 08713W 9771 00270 0075 +249 +235 178005 006 004 001 03

so the position is now approx 14 miles NNW of the previous fix.. with a speed of about 5 kts..

KWT · #2175 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:46 pm

Interesting Aric, the latest HWRF did suggest it would move more to the NW before moving back to a more westerly motion, that night not be a bad call if thats right.

JenBayles · #2176 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:47 pm

Swimdude wrote:Whew, we just had 35 mph wind gusts here in West Houston as this outer band comes through. Can't believe it's spawning bands like this. Temperature dropped about 10-15 degrees and the rain just started coming down heavy about the time I started writing this sentence, haha. Can't remember the last time I've seen storms approach from the northeast in the Houston area! At least we're getting a nice relief from the heat...

Getting pounded in Bear creek with heavy rain and high winds for a good 45 minutes. I thought this thing was supposed to be dead by now! What gives?

Aric Dunn · #2177 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:48 pm

KWT wrote:Interesting Aric, the latest HWRF did suggest it would move more to the NW before moving back to a more westerly motion, that night not be a bad call if thats right.

yeah but I believe that its more a consequence of the center follow the convective burst ..

#2178 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:52 pm

My level of interest at the moment!!!!

Aric Dunn · #2179 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:55 pm

HURAKAN wrote:http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5BV_YADVD7o/RpOTrsopWDI/AAAAAAAAAuM/5jspfDWcpug/s320/sleepy.jpg

My level of interest at the moment!!!!

hehe... I dont have much else to look at in the tropics.. lol

#2180 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:57 pm

I am offically tired of watch this thing. I wish it would send a cooling shower this way and get on outta here.

ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Re: ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

Who is online