Wave PGI-33L emerging Africa

[lonelymike]

What's the story on the 2nd wave behind PG-3047 or whatever its called. Some of the posts keep on hyping this as the one to watch. Post conjecture, speculation and all the models u want here to keep the rest of the board informed.

[Ivanhater]

It is an interesting combination.

The GFS and Euro want to develop the first one stronger, while the CMC and Nogaps prefer the second one.

All in all, I think both will, but how they interact could complicate track.

[cycloneye]

Finnally, someone made a thread for the wave that the models develop behind PGI-30L test invest wave. This one will be of more interest down the road because is at a very low latitude. Here it is at the bottom right of pic. They for sure will do tests on this one soon.

[cycloneye]

For those who may have missed the link to where the new project of test invests is, here it is.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

[KBBOCA]

Here's another helpful link for following the test invests, so you can see where they are on the map, quickly look at satellite images, etc.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#

[Macrocane]

I think that both of them could develop but one will be much weaker than the other, I will take the Euro/GFS solution as the more likely.

[ConvergenceZone]

The 2nd wave seems to come in weaker and weaker with each model run. I wouldn't be suprised if we only have the one first wave develop as a CV storm for the month of August...... If so, we still have September ahead of us which can produce CV systems.. So far, still a very un-impressive season....

[Ivanhater]

Euro has this way south...I'd imagine this would be a greater threat to the U.S

[cycloneye]

I am starting to think this will be the one that develops and not the frontrunner because is at a more lower latitude and because that one is getting ingested with dry air. It should start to be tested later today.

[KWT]

Most of the models develop this one rather then the 1st one...in fact only the GFS doesn't do much with this one...ao whilst all the attention is on the front runner...THIS one IMO maybe the one to really watch!

[cycloneye]

The latest. Is big and still at low latitude.

[KWT]

Nogaps recurves this but as a strong system, most models have this as the bigger feature, would be ironic if this was the one that goes for it in terms of development whilst the one in front with 40 pages does nothing!

[cycloneye]

12z CMC continues to develop this wave instead of the one in front.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Euro develops this into a tropical storm at a low latitude

[KWT]

Thats barely a TD to be fair Ivanhater, about the same strength as say 93L at that point...probably would be sheared as well from the big system to the north, but that will decrease down the line...could well be a developer and strengthen into the Caribbean, which would need extreme watching!

[CrazyC83]

If the CMC is to be believed, Cape Verde might have to watch out as it wants to really develop this quickly...has there ever been a hurricane in the SE Atlantic in or east of the Cape Verde islands (east of 25°W and south of 20°N)?

[Ivanhater]

Thats barely a TD to be fair Ivanhater, about the same strength as say 93L at that point...probably would be sheared as well from the big system to the north, but that will decrease down the line...could well be a developer and strengthen into the Caribbean, which would need extreme watching!

Eh, I'm not sure KWT....Bonnie didn't have this strong a reflection on the higher resolution map. Waiting for the higher resolution map to update.

[KWT]

To be fair though Ivanhater Bonnie was barely a TC, I mean it had a closed circulation for about 12hrs maybe, the ECM certainly wasn't that far off on what it showed considering its a global model.

[Ivanhater]

To be fair though Ivanhater Bonnie was barely a TC, I mean it had a closed circulation for about 12hrs maybe, the ECM certainly wasn't that far off on what it showed considering its a global model.

Hard to say with the Global, and the higher resolution still hasn't updated. Either way, it is clearly strengthening at a low latitude heading west. That is trouble in itself.

[Macrocane]

Actually it could be a TD or a TS because the yellow means winds between 15 m/s and 20 m/s and that's 54-72 km/h or 29-39 kt or 34-45 mph.