Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

Wow,it makes a big loop after Bermuda.Take a look at the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Wow is right..Serious ACE numbers there!

Oh without a doubt, if it didn't go extratropical you'd probably be looking at 40-50 units from that system given that sort of track and probable major hurricane strength!

I still suspect heavily this one recurves around 60-65W but thats obviously west enough to certainly need Bermuda and probably the east coast, esp further north to keep an eye on it as we are far enough out to see changes...

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, the model run keeps getting weather and weaker with the 2nd wave...We may only have the 1st wave afterall...

[Hugo1989]

What happened to the super wave??

[cycloneye]

What happened to the super wave??

Well, I dont go that far to say super wave, but is a good one.

Here is the latest.

[srainhoutx]

Our focus of attention is shifting E. Buckle up folks, the days ahead are likely to be very interesting and worthy of much discussion.

[cycloneye]

Below is the test track just updated for PGI-30L. That track is unofficial so dont shoot the messanger.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI30L.html

[Macrocane]

If we don't have a major hurricane from this wave I will think that actually this season was very overestimated and I don't like to think that way.

[ConvergenceZone]

If we don't have a major hurricane from this wave I will think that actually this season was very overestimated and I don't like to think that way.

I agree with you 100% Macrocane, if this doesn't develop into a major, what will?....This will probably be our last shot at a major for August anyway....
The MJO is only going to stay favorable for so long before it shifts back to unfavorable again....

[cycloneye]

Is simple, now or never.

[hurricaneCW]

If we don't have a major hurricane from this wave I will think that actually this season was very overestimated and I don't like to think that way.

I agree with you 100% Macrocane, if this doesn't develop into a major, what will?....This will probably be our last shot at a major for August anyway....
The MJO is only going to stay favorable for so long before it shifts back to unfavorable again....

Yeah I agree. It's pretty amazing that all factors in the preseason pointed to a hyperactive season and now we're just begging to see 1 storm in mid August after two pitiful tropical storms.

[Florida1118]

If this doesnt Develop, Im going to wonder if our switch got jammed.

[jaxfladude]

"Trend" lightly folks.

[Ivanhater]

We have PLENTY of threads for those that want to discuss about numbers and season activity. This thread is about this wave..let's keep it that way.

[cycloneye]

I am eagered to start tracking in my map those longtrackers. Will it be from the Eastern Atlantic? I guess mother nature will answer that.

[Sanibel]

It's eating too much dry air. Maybe if it can incorporate some of that ITCZ convection into it as it goes it will break the threshold and finally rise above the inhibiting conditions.

[Blown Away]

I am eagered to start tracking in my map those longtrackers. Will it be from the Eastern Atlantic? I guess mother nature will answer that.

Wow, haven't seen to many maps like this so far! The Azores high looks like it's going to push this wave a little SW, which is not that uncommon.

[Andrew92]

Actually, it wouldn't be unheard of if this doesn't become a major hurricane. The first systems are normally just starting to develop in this region during this time period, and quite a few have come up just short in recent years (since 1995) in become at least C3 hurricanes. Examples include:

Humberto in 1995
Iris in 1995
Danielle in 1998
Debby in 2000 (yeah, quite a bit short but certainly had potential)
Danielle in 2004

Yes, a few others have also gone on to become majors, but the point of this is to say that just because we're hyping it, don't necessarily expect a major. It could be another C2 that comes just short. In fact, if that's the case, I would actually still be very much watchful over the remainder of the season. 1995 and 2004 especially proved that point well.

-Andrew92

[ROCK]

It's eating too much dry air. Maybe if it can incorporate some of that ITCZ convection into it as it goes it will break the threshold and finally rise above the inhibiting conditions.

agree Sanibel.....notice dry and SAL to the north being pushed out ahead of it....aint going to do much until it can mix that out....might just keep it in check until it gets farther west...

[cycloneye]

The 00z GFS is running.

48 hours.

[cycloneye]

108 hours.