Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

126 hours.

[cycloneye]

144 hours.

[Ptarmigan]

It's eating too much dry air. Maybe if it can incorporate some of that ITCZ convection into it as it goes it will break the threshold and finally rise above the inhibiting conditions.

agree Sanibel.....notice dry and SAL to the north being pushed out ahead of it....aint going to do much until it can mix that out....might just keep it in check until it gets farther west...

Even if that wave eats dry air, it paves the way for other tropical waves.

[dwsqos2]

Weaker and weaker with each run; well this isn't shocking.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is that two other additional systems I'm seeing in the Atlantic Luis at 144 hours?

[Ptarmigan]

If we don't have a major hurricane from this wave I will think that actually this season was very overestimated and I don't like to think that way.

Hope you're right.

[cycloneye]

Is that two other additional systems I'm seeing in the Atlantic Luis at 144 hours?

Wave #2 revived somewhat by GFS and maybe a third but lets wait for more frames.

[cycloneye]

168 hours.

[ROCK]

yeah PT aware of the first wave being the fullback blocking for the tailback...

GFS wants this to gain lat right into a 1024 H....should be booking it west not NW....been showing this for many runs now....CMC has a weak system moving westward....leaning that way myself....still think it will recurve though....2nd wave is a low rider and probably make it across the pond....

[Ptarmigan]

yeah PT aware of the first wave being the fullback blocking for the tailback...

GFS wants this to gain lat right into a 1024 H....should be booking it west not NW....been showing this for many runs now....CMC has a weak system moving westward....leaning that way myself....still think it will recurve though....2nd wave is a low rider and probably make it across the pond....

It's the sacrificial lamb.

[cycloneye]

180 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Well with a trough digging to Miami

[floridasun78]

i do see this as hurr i dont see this weak system at all remember that gfs still getting handed of system we likely see hurr from wave shear droping dust leaving area so all looking good for this wave we could see td by thur

[TwisterFanatic]

Lol a trough digging through Miami.

[cycloneye]

Long Range.

Closer to Carolinas

[ROCK]

going to be a close call off the EC....how fast that weakness closes up...you can see the high building to its north......

side note---nice little reflection in the GOM.....

[Ivanhater]

This is odd..looks like it will miss the weakness then just 12 hours later....

[ROCK]

I am willing to bet its going to get a lot closer Luis....especially for the islands....and then for FL...in the tomorrows runs....

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, it's getting pretty close to the east coast there...At the very least some pretty good wave action if it gets that close and is that strong.

[floridasun78]

it hard to forecast trough we need see setup by weekend next week as td6 (maybe) or hurr move closer we could still see strong high by than we dont know answer so not call it fish yet