Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Run ends with wave #2 closer to Carolinas.

[ROCK]

Ivan that trof though digs deep for August seems to flatten out....more zonal flow...high builds in and steering collapses and it waits for the next out.....

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Brushes the East coast this run...that trough is doing some funny things as expected in the long range...gonna be a long tracker for sure.

[blp]

I agree no doubt this has been creeping more west with each run. Tomorrow will be interesting. At this point we just need something decent to track. For some reason this season has felt long to me I guess it was the pre-season hype.

[hurricaneCW]

The biggest thing is that high in Eastern Canada is really building, going to make it hard to recurve out to sea so easily. Now all we have to wait for is to see if we actually have a system to track. I'm glad the gfs picked up on wave 2 again, the last few runs pretty much killed it off and that wave has an even better chance at making the long trek to the U.S.

[hurricanetrack]

Excellent look tonight on the 00z. Love the long trackers. Here goes the increase in ACE. Finally. Now let's see what the good ole Euro suggests.

[Florida1118]

Im gonna take a guess of NC for landfall. Thats my random Dart on the Board. I dont see this shifting est for Fl to SC but JMO.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is much further south

[Florida1118]

Hmm...3 systems it seems. Are they all headed in the same direction?

[Vortex]

Ivan, have you been able to get the canadian long range yet?

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, have you been able to get the canadian long range yet?

A little bit after 12:30...1:30 your time

[hurricanetrack]

Watkins and I were talking about the NOGAPS this evening. Do they even really use that anymore? Seriously. Is it reliable or has it seen its better days?

[Ivanhater]

I hear them mention it time to time in the discussion Mark, but not often.

00z Canadian barely develops the first one..but all about the second.

[dwsqos2]

Oh yes, such wonderful news that the abominable CMC can't even develop a closed isobar.

[blp]

I am not sure if this the latest CMC long range because the site said it updates at 2:30am but it is much further west.

[Vortex]

Im pretty sure that was yesterday's 00Z run

[Stormhunter27]

Hey Ivanhater - where are you getting access to the long range Canadian?

I've got access to the GEM Global (the CMC), but you seem to be able to get it before I can! LOL

I've been noticing that the GEM has been consistently slower with systems than the GFS lately by about a day. That may make a big difference in the timing of the trough that's supposed to lift out the first wave. The GEM hasn't been doing too bad with tropical systems this year as well. For example, the GFS has a low developing across Southern Ontario on Friday into Saturday and the GEM develops the exact same low about 18 hours later and punches it through on Saturday afternoon.

I'm still working on trying to figure out the GEM's biases with tropical systems and it seems a bit random to me at the moment. It does well with some, but is just out to lunch on others.

[Ivanhater]

Hey storm..here is the long range Canadian. Updates around 12:30 CDT...1:30 Eastern

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

Takes a while longer for the Atlantic view long range to update...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/GGEM.html

[Stormhunter27]

Thanks Ivanhater!

I wondered if you were using the Canadianweather.org site. It's great and I've just started to use it. Ironically, I didn't know it existed until a little while ago.

You can also access the GEM Global and Regional at: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

One other site I like to use for comparison among the models is: http://home.cogeco.ca/~mbeuth/Model_Comparison.html It's one of the few sites that includes the GEM in the comparison. It's a nice little site.

Just to stay on topic:

I'm not particularly convinced of that stall at the end of the GFS run just off Hatteras. Seems awfully odd to me, but what I do note is the trend on this one. I have to agree with a few others that this is moving further and further west.