Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Well the Euro looks like the Canadian...

First wave weaker into the Islands..second one stronger

[Vortex]

seems like the consensus is to keep #1 weaker and west. Certainly has been the trend tonight except for the GFS.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

That would be a major

[somethingfunny]

So the wave that had been predicted to be a big storm is now predicted to fizzle, and the second wave (behind PGI-30L) is the one the models pick up as a hurricane now?

Story of the season if that's true.

[Ivanhater]

I was corrected. The system the Euro develops is the first system, times right with the GFS.

Second feature is way south

[pepeavilenho]

[ronjon]

ECM ensemble model much further south and west for the first disturbance.

[cycloneye]

The latest. Convection not plenty at the moment.

[cycloneye]

The 06z GFS run is weaker but more west and makes landfall in the Carolinas. Very close to Leewards.



Landfall in Carolinas.



06z GFS Loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ronjon]

Seeing a significant westward shift in the 06Z GFS run. It builds much stronger ridging over the central Atlantic and turns the storm into the NE Leewards and up into the east US coast similar to an Isabel type track. The eastern US trough that had been recurving the system well east of the US lifts out and pinches off a weakness over the eastern US. Way too far out to tell but the trends look further and further west. We're going to transition into a positive NAO according to the latest GFS ensemble runs which could mean stronger Atlantic ridging in about 10 days or so.

[UpTheCreek]

Glad that one is 300 hrs. out, so anything can happen....other than an obvious trend westward. Otherwise, me no likey!

[TheBurn]

[gatorcane]

all I can say is that when these systems start to "recurve" is still out beyond 220 hours or so....so anything can happen. It's pointless to speculate landfall areas this early or whether it will recurve or not. I mean look at the GFS from this weekend where it had the system recurving in the Central Atlantic thousands of miles east of the Caribbean/US? Now on the 06Z I see it skirts the Northern Leewards and is heading WNW at 240 hours and finally pulls north near the Bahamas at 288+ hours. That is so far out it is going to change each run I can guarantee you that.

One thing is for sure, the GFS and ECMWF are trending westward in the long-range with each run though gradually overtime............

[Frank2]

The first wave has really diminished in appearance since yesterday at this time, so we'll see what happens with that one and the second wave, though the second wave is not as low in latitude as it was yesterday at this time...

P.S. Does anyone have the CVI surface observations to post - it'd be interesting to see as the wave approaches and passes through there...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Observations from Sal in Cape Verde Islands show north winds but pressures are not low.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/CV_cc.html

Code: Select all

8 AM (12) Aug 17 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) N 9 light drizzle
 7 AM (11) Aug 17 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) NNE 9 
 6 AM (10) Aug 17 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 8 
 5 AM (9) Aug 17 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 
 4 AM (8) Aug 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNE 8 
 3 AM (7) Aug 17 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 7 
 2 AM (6) Aug 17 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 3 
 1 AM (5) Aug 17 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 3 
 Midnight (4) Aug 17 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 6


[Frank2]

Thanks (I don't have time to search for them myself)!

The obs correspond with it's appearance (that's an old NHC way of determining a system - if the satellite appearance is the same as the surface ob (or vice versa), then that's about what the aircraft would find)...

[ronjon]

The first wave has really diminished in appearance since yesterday at this time, so we'll see what happens with that one and the second wave, though the second wave is not as low in latitude as it was yesterday at this time...

P.S. Does anyone have the CVI surface observations to post - it'd be interesting to see as the wave approaches and passes through there...

Frank

Actually, the 06Z GFS develops the vorticity from convection S-SW of the cape verde islands in about 24 hours - down closer to 14N.

[ColinDelia]

The interaction with the SAL could be tricky but could go either way depending on path.

"Geostationary satellites reveal that the SAL often
enhances convection along its western and southern
boundaries (Chen 1985), but in its interior, the combination
of embedded dry, stable air and strong easterly
wind shear inhibits the occurrence of the deep
convection that is essential for TC formation."
SOURCE: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... S-85-3-353

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS really builds this system or the one behind it maybe... I can't tell...