Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

[ColinDelia]

CIMSS shows some some convergence, some divergence over this and some vorticity - associated more with the southern half which is real close to land.

[rockyman]

Being tracked as PGI27L:

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI27L.html


Looks like GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS follows this wave quickly across the Caribbean and into the Yucatan in 5 days...keeping it a weak, but distinct wave.

[ColinDelia]

Increase in convection this morning.

[TheBurn]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is this the wave that nogaps has been showing developing for that couple of runs in the sw Carib?

[ColinDelia]

Is this the wave that nogaps has been showing developing for that couple of runs in the sw Carib?

The 0z NOGAPS had the low forming in the SW Caribbean in 96 hours which seems too late for it to be this wave.

I was thinking NOGAPS was developing something from the ITCZ but not certain

[cycloneye]

They are doing tests on this wave,PGI-27L.

[ColinDelia]

[Portastorm]

Until the eastern Atlantic does its thing, I'm sensing this is the area we all need to be watching now.

[ROCK]

looks sheared enhanced convection....

[Portastorm]

Well yeah ... it's just a wave right now. Looks to have an ULL immediately to its west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[chrisjslucia]

Until the eastern Atlantic does its thing, I'm sensing this is the area we all need to be watching now.

I was watching this - all da** night as the lightening and thunder overhead made it impossible to sleep! As it was moving very slowly, with little or no wind, St Lucia started with torrential rain in parts of the country about 4pm and the light show ran from 8pm to 8am this morning. Suspect it will continue dumping rain as it moves west.

[Portastorm]

Until the eastern Atlantic does its thing, I'm sensing this is the area we all need to be watching now.

I was watching this - all da** night as the lightening and thunder overhead made it impossible to sleep! As it was moving very slowly, with little or no wind, St Lucia started with torrential rain in parts of the country about 4pm and the light show ran from 8pm to 8am this morning. Suspect it will continue dumping rain as it moves west.

Hey, thanks for the report! Sounds like this wave made its presence known on St. Lucia. Here's hoping for a quiet night on the island tonight so you can get some shut-eye.

[dwsqos2]

I see pretty colors aloft, and almost no low-level support. Pressures have risen quite a bit too, sure some of it's diurnal, but still.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is trying to develop but is sheared to the east and struggling with the prevailing 2010 negativity.

[KWT]

Interesting area of convection but as others have said its being caused by a pretty sheared divergent pattern, the only thing I will say is Bonnie developed out of a similar upper pattern so you never know something could try a little further in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[ROCK]

no model support yet..but we should have seen it in the med range if it was going to develop. Has some mid level turning....sheared some to the east....will watch while we wait on the BIG ONE coming in a few days....

[floridasun78]

we have it on two pm outlook so this watch by nhc now

[Ikester]

I think the NHC should go ahead and issue a hurricane watch for the Florida Panhandle. I'm convinced this is the one. NOT