So far...

[Frank2]

Last evening Jim Cantore asked Dr. Klotzbach (CSU) about his prediction of the season so far, and was told that we are already above average and "we expect it to become more favorable" (I always snicker when they say that - apparently they forget who's really in charge), but, as a person who's watched Jim Cantore for a number of years, I've come to know when Jim isn't happy with an answer - and by his lack of comment and the look on his face it said everything...

And it makes sense - for CSU to say "We're already above average" is a misleading statement...

Yes, we are up to the letter "D", BUT...

Only the "A" system was a bonified tropical cyclone, since TD2 was very weak, as well as TD3/Bonnie, and now TD4/Colin (and ex-Colin), so to say "We're already above average!" is incorrect, since we might be already above average as far as the alphabet is concerned (but the same could be said on Sesame Street, too - lol), but that doesn't mean, as far as Governments, citizens and the media are concerned, that the season so far can be considered "hard" by any stretch of the imagination, since we could end up with 30 named systems - but weak systems do not count in the eye (pardon the pun) of the average citizen...

So, I'd have to agree with Jim Cantore's skepticism after hearing CSU's reply to his question...

Frank

[KWT]

It is what it is Frank...it really doesn't matter whether me or you think it was a "real TC" or considered a busy season because it didn't smash land. They are TC's and when we are long dead and buried and all that will be left is the records of those storms, they will count, much the same way as a 12hr system that hit the Gulf in say 1880 or whatever season counts to the number of the season nowdays....only the true legends get remembered, your Andrews/Katrinas/Mitchs will probably be the only ones of recent times still talked about 100 years from now I suspect.

Now we are still above average, Bonnie/Colin were both weak (though Colin may not be totally gone just yet....) I agree but they are still in the record books....

As you are probably well aware Frank some of the big seasons in the past just start to ramp up during the next 2 weeks, and some have taken even longer then that, take 1961 for example. These next 2-3 weeks will give a good indication of what is likely to occur this season...do I think personally think we are on for 18NS...no not really. I'd go with 15NS right now but you know things can ramp up quickly, if the E.Atlantic system manages to get going we are upto 4NS before 10th August and thats before the true season tends to kick in, so to speak your bonus storms. 1998 is still globally the best match and Bonnie didn't come along till the 18th, so plenty of time.

ps, I think the D storm this week, then have a slight wait again...which is bad thing because its looking like the troughing will weaken again just in time for the Major Climo ramp-up towards the peak of the season, may have a proper MJO wave with that as well, could get 5-7 storms between 20th August-10th September, and yeah I know its the peak, but thats quite a few storms for a 20 day period...

[mitchell]

And it makes sense - for CSU to say "We're already above average" is a misleading statement...
Yes, we are up to the letter "D", BUT...

Now we are still above average, Bonnie/Colin were both weak (though Colin may not be totally gone just yet....) I agree but they are still in the record books....

The fact that you are both right illustrates the deficient approach we use to compare tropical seasons, when we just bottom line number of named storms.

[Frank2]

This morning the TWC OCM asked Dr. Knabb if he thought the season was below normal at this point, and his answer was in as far as one hurricane up to now it's a normal season, but as far as the strength of the other systems it's slightly below average...

Wow - what a statement, considering the seasonal forecasts...

[StormClouds63]

Underwhelming.

[KWT]

I think thats reasonable enough to say Frank, the quality of some of the system has been nothing short of terrible...

But then you could still say the same of 1998/1999 and still quite a few other seasons at this point

[somethingfunny]

All across the globe this year has been very similar to 1998.

[dwsqos2]

bump

[Frank2]

...asking admin to remove this thread since it's 12 months old...

While I understand why it was done (as a comparison), please give me the courtesy of asking whether I'd like this old topic to be posted here, since some might think I'm posting the topic twice, which is contrary to the S2K TOS...

P.S. While last year was busy, thank the Lord there weren't any landfalls, which was amazing considering the activity level...

Thanks