Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Hugo1989]

Much further W this run. The trend continues day after day via guidance. For those that have been impatient regarding this season, we often forget that La Nina years bring later activity that can linger into November and even beyond IMO.

Strongly agree!

[Wx_Warrior]

Still a ways off. 300+ on models can be screwy.

[ronjon]

That run of the GFS would be devastating. A major hurricane into northern Leewards, PR, moving over eastern Hispanola, the Bahamas, and N FL. Of course, its way out so its fantasy now but the trend is westward with more ridging over the Atlantic. Wonder what 12Z Euro will show.

[srainhoutx]

Still a ways off. 300+ on models can be screwy.

Concerning the Islands? 180 hours isn't that long. Regarding GA/FL? Certainly.

[petit_bois]

Still a ways off. 300+ on models can be screwy.

Concerning the Islands? 180 hours isn't that long. Regarding GA/FL? Certainly.

anything over 72 hrs gets very very iffy...

[cycloneye]

For me is below the long range so that concerns me of course.

[Bocadude85]

That run of the GFS would be devastating. A major hurricane into northern Leewards, PR, moving over eastern Hispanola, the Bahamas, and N FL. Of course, its way out so its fantasy now but the trend is westward with more ridging over the Atlantic. Wonder what 12Z Euro will show.

Not to mention very rare.. a hurricane has not made landfall in Northeast Florida since Dora in 1964

[hurricaneCW]

That run could be too far west. There remains a lot of weakness off the east coast that would tend to bring storms further north. I feel the gfs will correct itself in the next few runs, unless the ridge actually does strengthen in which we could see the devastating run portrayed. Don't forget, the gfs showed a distinct recurve around Bermuda just a day or so ago.

[Vortex]

If the trends continue with the remaining guidance it will be interesting to read the disco out of san juan later today or Wednesday

[srainhoutx]

Still a ways off. 300+ on models can be screwy.

Concerning the Islands? 180 hours isn't that long. Regarding GA/FL? Certainly.

anything over 72 hrs gets very very iffy...

Patterns and trends can certainly be recognized via guidance. I suspect that some folks are just a bit antsy for something to form. I strongly suggest that the wait is almost over. Stay safe Island neighbors and keep informed.

[Bocadude85]

That run could be too far west. There remains a lot of weakness off the east coast that would tend to bring storms further north. I feel the gfs will correct itself in the next few runs, unless the ridge actually does strengthen in which we could see the devastating run portrayed. Don't forget, the gfs showed a distinct recurve around Bermuda just a day or so ago.

Yes the models will continue to change but I am wondering if the models arent signaling a pattern change with stronger high pressure as we move into september.

[ronjon]

JAX Landfall? Almost unheard of.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Never was bought on the recurvature, and I still ain't. Lol. Check out the NAO, not only will we have weaker and flatter troughs if that verified but the subtropical ridge would be positioned further south and west than normal. That's what the GFS is seeing when it brought PGI30L to the east coast. Now, this is still long ways off and is margin the very, very large errors, but it is something to watch for. If and when it develops we'll have a better clue as to its path and intensity. By the way, SAL is not what's having its role on PGI30L, its the cool SSTs it emerged on to. I think we'll have to wait another 36-48 hours before the system really begins to organize and intensify. And yes the system looks to be running into heavy SAL, no, it will not run into it. Notice how several global models and the pouch tracking all point towards a WSW turn as the subtropical ridge influences its steering. Also, as it moves towards the WSW it will be encountering much warmer SSTs.

[Aric Dunn]

I Think the most important aspect to take from the GFS is not that its forecasting a hurricane into the islands or the US but rather that its forecasting a major pattern shift. for the last month or so its had a consistent western atlantic trough and a weak bermuda high. This is the time of year where we would expect to see a strong sub tropical ridge to be in place and finally the GFS (which does the best with large synoptic patterns) is seeing a change. This change coupled with the warm SST (and many other factors that have led forecasters to see a very active season) will have a huge effect on the upper environment as well. when we have fairly strong sub tropical ridge the flow is more streamline so instead of having a bunch of ULL moving slowly around the atlantic we will see everything essentially flow from east to west and thats when we typically need to watch out.

[KWT]

Yeah but let see the ECM fall in line as it shows a rather different upper pattern with the upper troughing holding and given its been there for the last month, its thr form horse to back really. Still what the GFS is showing IS going to come in at some point I feel, not sure it'll be soon enough for this wave but you never know...GFS is a little progressive IMO.

Also I'd like to see something other then the GFS actually *develop* this system, none of the models really like this one anymore and are paying more attention to the 2nd system...which in some ways could be worse for risk down the line...

[Aric Dunn]

well like in many situation when we get development there are 2 waves that merge to develop something. the models do not do well with that scenario and the second wave is close behind. so again I would not focus on development as a certainty rather a change in the pattern.

[floridasun78]

Yeah but let see the ECM fall in line as it shows a rather different upper pattern with the upper troughing holding and given its been there for the last month, its thr form horse to back really. Still what the GFS is showing IS going to come in at some point I feel, not sure it'll be soon enough for this wave but you never know...GFS is a little progressive IMO.

Also I'd like to see something other then the GFS actually *develop* this system, none of the models really like this one anymore and are paying more attention to the 2nd system...which in some ways could be worse for risk down the line...

i disagree i do see first one that off Africa to be hurr by weekend and one you talking about be maybe ts if dont get to close to first one gfs forecast one off Africa to be strong hurr this time year for it so i do see it becoming hurr as gfs show this not june this aug

[curtadams]

The GFS has been predicting, for almost a week, that this would develop into a healthy TS shortly after coming off the coast. Other models have generally disagreed. Well, the other models were right and the GFS flat wrong. So, I'd bet that for the next few days, the GFS will continue to be wrong and the other models right and we won't see any substantial development of this system.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=There is a new test invest (PGI-31L) in front of the wave of this topic. Maybe it develops from this one?

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI31L.html

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but the models are going to flip flop back and forth unless something really gets going (as others have mentioned, nothing really out there at this moment), so anything at this point is bascially fiction - we all remember those crazy model runs of September 2008 (Ike) that had everyone in South Florida upset for a number of days, until the system unexpectedly dipped southward (a very bad season for Haiti, as some here might recall), so lettuce (it's lunchtime) wait and see...

Frank