Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

well look how the GFS is now way west....just goes to show you to not trust any model runs that showing recurve at 240+ hours.......

[Aric Dunn]

Off Topic=There is a new test invest (PGI-31L) in front of the wave of this topic. Maybe it develops from this one?

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI31L.html

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/predict_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc10/ATL/31L.PGI31L/vis/geo/1km_zoom/thumb/20100817.1600.msg2.x.vis1km_high.31LPGI31L.15kts-1010mb-131N-282W.100pc.jpg

well like I just said a min ago we often see multiple waves merge and then get development. and this is the solution with the nogaps at least i have not looked at what the GFS does with that idea.

[Aric Dunn]

This is interesting... I just read this from the HPC and they mention the the gfs pattern.

"ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A PERTURBATION IN
THE EASTERLIES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH AXIS REMAINING
ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUTT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO. ALSO...AS MJO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA...IT
WILL BE WISE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS FEATURE."

Full discussion
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[floridasun78]

The GFS has been predicting, for almost a week, that this would develop into a healthy TS shortly after coming off the coast. Other models have generally disagreed. Well, the other models were right and the GFS flat wrong. So, I'd bet that for the next few days, the GFS will continue to be wrong and the other models right and we won't see any substantial development of this system.

you could be wrong look we not june we aug tropical will wakeup i hope you have hurr kit it look like you dont

[UpTheCreek]

The only thing I've been getting from these models is that yes, something is going to develop and it appears that it's trending in a more westward track. And even that is probably a fairly large assumption at this point!

[KWT]

Interesting Cycloneye, thats what the ECM has been showing and instead of merging them, it keeps them seperate and prevents any strengthening from occuring with this wave...will be interesting to see if the 12z ECM carries on that idea and of course if the 1st one doesn't develop, the 2nd one will have a far better set-up to develop because there isn't the other systems outflow to deal with...

ps, and yes Aric, the GFS does develop 31 instead of 30 based on where it develops it but the system does sit there for a little while, probably the ITCZ plays a role as well...but I'm personally thinking the 2nd one has a much better shot then the 1st one but obviously if it is the southern one, then its going to have a better chance of developing for sure.

[Ivanhater]

Wow...I told you guys the trough was doing some funny things in the long range that didn't make sense last night. Last night should have been much further west as well if it didn't "back build" the trough when the ridge was already building back..

Hope everyone is rested up

[somethingfunny]

Wow...I told you guys the trough was doing some funny things in the long range that didn't make sense last night. Last night should have been much further west as well if it didn't "back build" the trough when the ridge was already building back..

Hope everyone is rested up

More like worn out. Wake me up when we reach T-minus 96 hours.

[KWT]

CMC suggests recurve for this one...

Whats interesting is how it evolves, the system 31 heads all the way back to the CV islands then heads back west and develops...

But that easterly motion all the way back means it misses the upper high and instead moves WNW instead, whilst the GFS doesn't take it all the way back east and thus gets caught under the moderate upper high.

Thats going to be the difference between a recurve and a threat ironically, a more defined system is more likely to get caught under the high, if its a mess of several Vorts like the CMC, it'll miss the boat and become fish food.

[ROCK]

Wow...I told you guys the trough was doing some funny things in the long range that didn't make sense last night. Last night should have been much further west as well if it didn't "back build" the trough when the ridge was already building back..

Hope everyone is rested up

wow what a turn for the worst on the 12z GFS run..... scary indeed....thats a major alright

[Ivanhater]

Euro Ensemble is in agreement with the 12z Operational GFS

[hurricaneCW]

I'm kind of getting tired of all the model speculation. We've been on this wave for over a week. There are no signs of anything developing, just pure model speculation. Now the models are killing off the 1st wave and focusing on the second, which means we'll have to wait another week before we see the 2nd wave do something.

So here we are, August 17th, with nothing definite on the horizon, just some fantasy model runs. The 1st wave probably won't develop because the SAL is becoming immense once again, the models are killing it off, but maybe the 2nd wave will develop over 10 days later unless the models decide to kill that off too. Other than that, there's nothing else in the Atlantic. No invests, no depressions, no nothing in this "hyperactive season" that remains dormant.

[ronjon]

Not sure what everyone is talking about - the 12Z CMC looks to develop the vorticity S-SW of the Cape Verde Islands similar to the GFS. All models have backed off the swirl that exited north of the islands off the African coast. They are now focused on the ITCZ convection S-SW of the islands near 14N for development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[KWT]

I'm kind of getting tired of all the model speculation. We've been on this wave for over a week. There are no signs of anything developing, just pure model speculation. Now the models are killing off the 1st wave and focusing on the second, which means we'll have to wait another week before we see the 2nd wave do something.

Take a look at the actual models before you make such rash comments I think...the CMC and the GFS are developing the same feature, the CMC though merges the lot a bit further east and slower thus the higher recurve chances...the ECM remains to be seen but the problem with that model is it doesn't manage to merge the system very well so it just remains a disorganised mess...

One of those waves will develop, if not the 1st the 2nd likely will given its a more compact feature then the 1st.

[tolakram]

You don't look at the models to nail a storm, instead you look for trends and consensus. When a couple of major models develop something the odds of something developing are quite good in the general area the models are speculating. Not a particular feature mind you, but general development. You will see this happen year after year.

[Ivanhater]

I'm kind of getting tired of all the model speculation. We've been on this wave for over a week. There are no signs of anything developing, just pure model speculation. Now the models are killing off the 1st wave and focusing on the second, which means we'll have to wait another week before we see the 2nd wave do something.

So here we are, August 17th, with nothing definite on the horizon, just some fantasy model runs. The 1st wave probably won't develop because the SAL is becoming immense once again, the models are killing it off, but maybe the 2nd wave will develop over 10 days later unless the models decide to kill that off too. Other than that, there's nothing else in the Atlantic. No invests, no depressions, no nothing in this "hyperactive season" that remains dormant.

This is simply incorrect. Both the GFS and Euro are still developing the FIRST wave. It is normal for some models to have a hard time with cyclogenesis, but in this case, it's a good bet a storm will develop from this (probably a major).

I'll say it again, this thread is not about seasonal activity and numbers. There are PLENTY of threads for that. This is what we have this season so work with what you have.

[ROCK]

one thing is for sure...there is PLENTY of pontential out there to get some powerful storms.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[hurricaneCW]

I'm kind of getting tired of all the model speculation. We've been on this wave for over a week. There are no signs of anything developing, just pure model speculation. Now the models are killing off the 1st wave and focusing on the second, which means we'll have to wait another week before we see the 2nd wave do something.

Take a look at the actual models before you make such rash comments I think...the CMC and the GFS are developing the same feature, the CMC though merges the lot a bit further east and slower thus the higher recurve chances...the ECM remains to be seen but the problem with that model is it doesn't manage to merge the system very well so it just remains a disorganised mess...

One of those waves will develop, if not the 1st the 2nd likely will given its a more compact feature then the 1st.

It's just very frustrating because it feels like the models are all over the place. I'm not sure which model to trust.

[floridasun78]

guys and ladys the peak is coming gfs telling us we need get ready we going into busy few weeks gfs is not crying wolf so be ready i see alot you going soon to topic that season is over but it not let wave more more west see gfs was right

[KWT]

Its a wise attitude not to get too heavily involved in the models right now HCW given each model is showing a similar set-up but at the same time there is enough of a difference to make things uncertain!

Here is a good guide of how it may evolve:

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

The benefits of a merge is the northern system (30) will eat the SAL up bit by bit so when this one does try to merge it won't be as bad as it is right now.