Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

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CrazyC83
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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:07 pm

The wave numbering is new? Although this should become 95L soon anyway...even though I don't see Danielle coming out of this.
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Re:

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The wave numbering is new? Although this should become 95L soon anyway...even though I don't see Danielle coming out of this.



Is a new project to study the tropical waves. See the details at link. http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#23 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:22 pm

Convection is hinting at persistence.


All it would take is sudden favorability at this time of year. (Think Alex)
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Re: Re:

#24 Postby tronbunny » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The wave numbering is new? Although this should become 95L soon anyway...even though I don't see Danielle coming out of this.



Is a new project to study the tropical waves. See the details at link. http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html


:think:
Sorry, but maybe we need a new thread/sticky for this novel paradigm.
Seems specific to the Navy Post-Grad School and is unheard of until now.
Where else would one find reference to these invest designations?
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Re: Re:

#25 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:12 pm

tronbunny wrote:
:think:
Sorry, but maybe we need a new thread/sticky for this novel paradigm.
Seems specific to the Navy Post-Grad School and is unheard of until now.
Where else would one find reference to these invest designations?


There's a map here if someone didn't post it earlier in the thread.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#26 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:20 pm

Decent divergence aloft according to CIMSS product. Maximum vorticity is over Dominican Republic though.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#27 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:13 pm

Amazing how quite the Atlantic basin has been with really nothing on the horizion. Need to keep an eye on this though. Looks like the shear is finally starting to relax a bit.....MGC
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#28 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:38 pm

The clouds do show a nice comma shape:

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Last edited by rockyman on Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#29 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:38 pm

Hmmm could warrant an invest some point in the next 12-24hrs if it continues, whilst no models develop it, its still a decent looking wave for now.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#30 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:42 pm

While none of the models develop the system significantly, four of the globals (GFS, UKMet, Euro, and NOGAPS) are showing it move across the Caribbean as a distinct entity:

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#31 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 5:01 pm

I reluctant to buy any development ideas.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#32 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:41 pm

CODE YELLOW...10%

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
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#33 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:20 pm

Shear decreases rapidly as it works westward though...
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#34 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:29 pm

I believe the NOGAPS likes it. Contrary to public opinion, NGPs does fairly well with systems in the western Caribbean....why is beyond me...but I've noticed this in the past.
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Re:

#35 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Shear decreases rapidly as it works westward though...


That it does. This area has been a 'hotbed' all season. Many a well known storm had it's genesis in this region over the years.
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Re: Re:

#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:33 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Shear decreases rapidly as it works westward though...


That it does. This area has been a 'hotbed' all season. Many a well know storm had it's genesis in this region over the years.


Almost nothing has gone in there as well so we haven't had much chance to see what the tropical Caribbean is capable of. 10% seems really conservative IMO. THIS might be Danielle in the end, and the conditions there favor rapid deepening if an LLC can get established.
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Re: Re:

#37 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Shear decreases rapidly as it works westward though...


That it does. This area has been a 'hotbed' all season. Many a well know storm had it's genesis in this region over the years.


Almost nothing has gone in there as well so we haven't had much chance to see what the tropical Caribbean is capable of. 10% seems really conservative IMO. THIS might be Danielle in the end, and the conditions there favor rapid deepening if an LLC can get established.


Great point. It's been a long time since Alex and TD 2. :wink:
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#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:48 pm

The negative factors right now are that there is NO circulation of any kind, and convection is weakening some. A shear line is clearly visible - west of there shear is minimal. The strongest potential is if an LLC is established in the southern part of the convection.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#39 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:51 pm

Let's see what the night brings. A bit further W and another day or so, we may have something to talk about. The Western Caribbean is worth watching IMO over the remainder of the season.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Central Caribbean

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:56 pm

And if you have something like this growing as it has been untouched for the most part this season.

Image
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