Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess it comes down to wave #2, which shouldn't recurve at all

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I've noticed the models have been trending West the past couple of days. Which isn't good, I'd feel a lot better if they had this things hitting land hard earlier in the week. And then started trending further East the past two days. As things now stand, this one certainly has my interest (and it hasn't even formed yet).

[ConvergenceZone]

I've noticed the models have been trending West the past couple of days. Which isn't good, I'd feel a lot better if they had this things hitting land hard earlier in the week. And then started trending further East the past two days. As things now stand, this one certainly has my interest (and it hasn't even formed yet).

I don't think hitting Canada means that it's trending westward

[KWT]

I guess it comes down to wave #2, which shouldn't recurve at all

Ahh the models haven't a clue on the 2nd wave, the difference between the GFS and the ECM is pretty marked it has to be said, as you'd expect this far out!

What is interesting to note is just how close that is to actually being quite a dangerous set-up, if the upper weakness isn't quite as strong, the set-up at 264-276 could well lead to a NE states hit and a danger to the coastal cities...

An awful long way out yet and I still suspect it'll never get far enough west to be a worry...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I've noticed the models have been trending West the past couple of days. Which isn't good, I'd feel a lot better if they had this things hitting land hard earlier in the week. And then started trending further East the past two days. As things now stand, this one certainly has my interest (and it hasn't even formed yet).

I don't think hitting Canada means that it's trending westward

Well before it was just hitting Bermuda, and New Foundland Island. Now it is hitting Nova Scotia. That is a Westward trend my friend. Slight granted, but it is trending west a bit with each run.

[KWT]

Bermuda still looks by far the most likely to get anything from this followed by Newfoundland. Places to the west do clearly need to still keep a close eye but the models have been very impressive with thier tracks this season thus far from what I've seen, the only one to throw them a real curveball was Alex.

[hurricaneCW]

Well 1 run ago it was rampaging the islands and than the southeast coastline (including Florida). This could be one of those storms were forecasters tear their hair off because of how close it could get to the east coast. The most likely thing, as of now, is that we will see a storm. This is the strongest run yet of the storm on the gfs and it looks similar to the Euro.

Way out in fantasy land, the gfs has a strengthening storm. Is that wave #2 or something completely different. It looks like it could be another threat to the east coast.

[Dean4Storms]

True, that run the trough is digging all the way down to 30N, for late August that might be a bit much!!!

[cycloneye]

Below is the 8:05 PM EDT TWD for both waves.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N22W TO 09N29W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 16N
BETWEEN 21W-36W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY E
OF 31W. AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-28N.
DUE TO THIS AREA OF DRIER AIR...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N34W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED TO
THE EAST AND REMAINING LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
TROPICAL WAVE. THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE EAST IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AND LIMITING IT TO THE ITCZ
REGION S OF 11N.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro and GFS mean would suggest ridging over Canada and the North East. Still think the models are going to flip flop like we have seen. Once we see where the center locates, we should get a better idea. Remember the models (at least the GFS) had this setting up around 18 to 20 north, now it's further south.

[CrazyC83]

I'd have at least gone Code Yellow on this. Looking at models, I think this could develop quickly as it leaves Africa - and we could even have a storm before Cape Verde.

[Florida1118]

I Guess you were right CW. Danielle is going to be a major.

[CrazyC83]

What role would the low at 20N 52W play? Would it just lift it northward early? Or is it supposed to dissipate/move away?

[Steve H.]

Well, it shows it close to the Hebert box. But there's no telling at this point what the surrounding environment will be when this develops. The globals seem to wait until a second impulse comes off the coast which provides a moisture surge. The Euro is disturbing though. It develops a substantial cyclone out of this The first of many....fishes we can hope.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the 12z GFS run looked more a possibility, just can't see a trough digging down to 30N.

[OuterBanker]

Oh well, my two cents worth. It is fun to watch these things from a distance. So far I've seen models slam the N Fl Ga coast, harmless fish food, a Bermuda vacation, Bay of Funday, and l knew the Carolina coast would't last long in the runs. And I wanted to see if I got this right so Mets please correct me. It looked like it went poof after it exited Africa. But there is a well defined llc with no convection. I understand that a well defined llc has a much better chance for development than a large blob with deep convection but no defined llc. Is that right?

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

00z GFS H+42


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[Ivanhater]

A lot more SW of the 18z run, even a bit SW of the 12z run

90 hours

[Ivanhater]

114 hours