Wave PGI-33L emerging Africa

[Ivanhater]

Finally updated...The trend has been stronger each run

[cycloneye]

The latest. Is getting ready to splash into the water by tommorow although is getting some feed from the Gulf of Guinea.

[KWT]

Once the system in fronbt of it starts to gain latitude, then conditions will start to improve for this one..and given how far south it is and the fact it may well take a little while to develop any wave down there would need real close watching.

Still the first wave needs to be watched first clearly...but the 2nd could well be the real player for Early September!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[KWT]

The tropical wave that is over Africa is the one that is just a little to the east of the east coast as an open system, the 3rd system over Africa just about in view is the strong system NE of the Caribbean.

A nice train of systems there as well!

[cycloneye]

I remember when wave that gave birth to Bertha was mentioned at TWO still inside Africa. Will they do the same tommorow? Wow,look at that.

[cycloneye]

PGI-33L is Introduced for this system

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI33L.html

New pouch is now up.Read the synopsis where they say a merging between 31L and 33L will trigger the development.

Date (UTC): 2010/08/18 12:56
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/18 12:59
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI33L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 8N 3W
Notes:

3W is probably a bit too far east. The models analyzed PGI33L a
few degrees farther west.
Note: The interaction of PGI31L with PGI33L is handled quite
differently by the models!

[cycloneye]

Here is where 33L is located.

[ColinDelia]

""This is getting out of hand. Now there are three of them." - Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace


















(It was actually two in the movie. poetic license)

[cycloneye]

Yes,really confusing all of this. That is why I would like to see soon official invest 95L up to take away the confusion.

[ColinDelia]

The GFS and NOGAPS keep 31 and 33 separate. The UK Met combines them.

From the rest of the synopsis::

GFS: Phase Speed: -7.0 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 108h
Weakens northeast of a stronger PGI31L

UKMET: Phase Speed: -8.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120h
Very strong. Absorbs PGI31L.

NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -3.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120
Nearly same intensity as PGI31L, but remains separate.

If you look at the vorticity output for the GFS you can see 33 move to northeast of 31 and it is still northeast at 168 hours.

[BigA]

Something has got to develop from this mess. How often do the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and WRF all agree on significant development?

My best guess is that the energy from this wave will spur the vorticity south of the Cape Verde islands to start convecting, which will rather rapidly form a low pressure area.

[ColinDelia]

This is how the GFS handles 33 and 31.

950mb vorticity. GFS.

Current


24 hours


48 hours


72 hours


168 hours

[KWT]

Its an interesting solution there from the 06z GFS, it does try to create a weak probably very sheared system and also helps to induce a weakness to take the powetrful hurricane northwards into the stronger weakness to the north.

[ColinDelia]

What's really interesting to me is that despite numerous different handlings of 30, 31 and 33 and the way they interact the models have all continually developed SOMETHING for the past week. It's not even always the same area being developed. As of this moment, 33 has an associated vorticity of 50 units of vorticity, 30 has 30 units of vorticity and 31 now has 40 units. What we continually see is these 3 areas being combined in various ways which keeps changing with the situation but always still being combined.

It looks like 30 is cooked in the middle of the SAL. If so, what might develop is further south and has an increased chance of heading toward the islands in the E. Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Here are the first NRL images of PGI-33L.

PGI-33L NRL Images

[Hugo1989]

Very impressive!!

http://www.sat24.com/wa

[ColinDelia]

ECMWF: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: Pouch only at analysis ... at that's being generous!
Unlike the other models that have a moderate/strong PGI33L,
ECMWF has only a shear line with no pouch. Eventually (~108h),
a pouch moves off the African coast, but that is actually the
following wave, not PGI33L that is currently close to the coast
(at least in the other models)

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

[Hugo1989]

Without a doubt one of the best wave that has emerged from africa this season.

[Ivanhater]

This one may pose a bigger threat to the U.S

Heading for the Caribbean at a low latitude