Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Florida1118]

Still far out but good luck NE.

[Wx_Warrior]

Joe B. & Cantore wouldn't know what to do!

[Vortex]

If it wasnt for low pressure developing along the SE coast and weakening the western exteny of the ridge we probably would of had this storm head into the bahamas...Regardless, the trend has been further west...much further west in last 24-48hr.

[hurricaneCW]

The 1st threatening run for the Mid-Atlantic/New England states this season. The trends are rather alarming however. Timing will be everything, but if the storm is slow enough, the trough over the east will lift out and give way to a massive ridge of high pressure that would shove the storm towards the coast. Very Isabel-like from the gfs.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow. That would put millions of people at risk from a late August hurricane. Those are not ones to fool around with. Later in the season, you got troughs and shear and what not to break them up more. We'll see. This should get more people talking about it around the ole water cooler.

[UpTheCreek]

How strong would that storm be in that 300 hr. model?

[cycloneye]

Look what comes directly to the Caribbean, but is way long range.

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs track is almost identical to the September 1944 Great Hurricane from about the Carolinas northward.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ivanhater]

The trend has been more and more land hits. Last few days has been fishing but now inching west. The slower formation might be worse for the Islands and U.S

[Vortex]

Prior to 24 hours ago we had recurvature around 60 w.

12Z Florida hit
18Z Canada hit
00Z Mid atlantic/NE hit


I smell a trend......

[blp]

As many have stated the trend cannot be ignored. I am looking more at the pattern than the landfall at this point and it seems to be that the GFS has been slower on each run and thus allowing this to move further west. Wow we will all have some long nights of model watching considering this still more than 7 days away from even approaching any kind of landfall.

[USTropics]

Looking at the last 3 GFS runs in correlation, another alarming trend has been intensity in 6-7 days. The model runs continue to show a strengthening hurricane approaching 60W.

[ROCK]

that run is right out of "The Day after Tomorrow"...a major up into the NE states would be horrific....

[floridasun78]

i was talking to my friend we both saw this could happen that high could build more west this system could be more west or wnw track not fish

[Vortex]

CMC 00z

ODD!!


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps

Recurvature around 45w?



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[StarmanHDB]

I'm far from an expert so please forgive me if I'm stating the obvious but, from my point of view, this has the makings of the ultimate gloom and doom scenario that you see on almost every hurricane specific "what if" / "it could happen tomorrow" TV program! I know that we're talking about 12-13 days from now, but if this happens as the models are currently predicting, every urban center along the middle states to northeast US coasts north to eastern Canada better start considering getting their proverbial ducks-in-a-row! YIKES!

[ROCK]

00Z Nogaps

Recurvature around 45w?



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

right into the ridge...next run please...


BTW- I see the NOGAPS holding on to the yucatan low but this time buries it in Mexico.

[lester]

Wow!!!! at the gfs run. Good thing its 300 hours away. Definitely watching this now.

[Hurricaneman]

If you average the last 5 runs of the gfs, the carolinas northward would be in big trouble, and I dont want any of it, but its still 240+ hours away so anything can happen from a fish to a miami hit