Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Ikester]

Or dare I say it, nothing at all could form. Let's just watch. Sure there is model support, but there was uncanny model support for Colin being a big hurricane, too. We all know what happened there.

[Vortex]

Anyone have the 00z ecm yet?

[Ivanhater]

Out to 120 hours

[Ivanhater]

Well 00z Euro shows an early recurve

[KWT]

ECM suggests recurve as its done for the last 8 runs or so, its difficult to go against the model in this situation esp given the position this one may develop.

Remember the GFS went too far west with Bill last year over and over again, I'm not making that mistake twice!

[ColinDelia]

Increasing vorticity south of CV this morning (on 850 mb vorticity map)

[cycloneye]

06z GFS goes further south and west and strikes the northern Leewards as a powerful hurricane. Brushes NE Puerto Rico like Hugo did.

[Meso]

[cycloneye]

Here is the complete loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ColinDelia]

984 mb at 192 hours. Strong cat 1-ish. FWIW.

Just fiction at this point.

[OuterBanker]

FYI, local weather this am just mentioned that it is late August and no tropical activity. He also goes on vacation this weekend.

How about that Al Gore/GFS run last night. 1944 again, except now it would affect around 50 million.

[cycloneye]

This is PGI-31L and I think this is the area to watch.

[tolakram]

Time keeps moving ... doubt increasing ... or is it impatience? Hard to tell.

[Cryomaniac]

This is PGI-31L and I think this is the area to watch.

That looks like a whole lot of nothing to me, but obviously we have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

There is vorticity around the area South and SW of the CV islands.

[hurricaneCW]

A lot of interesting model solutions. The thing that is most certain is that we should be dealing with a strong hurricane a week from now. I'm still waiting to see something form. According to the gfs, we should have a strengthening area of low pressure in the next day or so from all of that convective action within the ITCZ.

[ColinDelia]

The dry air to the east is suppressing the convection at the moment. I don't think the current lack of convection means much in the long run. Vorticity looks pretty similar to what the models have been forecasting the past few days. There are two areas with about 30 units of vorticity which have been forecast to combine with the southern one being the more dominant forming a low over the next 72 hours.

[cperez1594]

The Brownsville AFD early this morning.. talking about the tropics

.LONG TERM...7 PM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE 3 TO 7
DAY RANGE MAINTAINING HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. OVERALL
DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT PATTERN. WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING EXPECT A
PERSISTENCE PATTERN FOR TEMPS AND POPS TO PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 7.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX TEMPS AND POPS LOOK ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
RANGE. SO WILL GO WITH A GMOS/ADJMAV BLEND FOR TEMPS AND CLOSE TO
MEX MOS NUMBERS FOR POPS.LOOKING INTO THE TROPICS BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS TAKE A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST AFRICAN
COASTLINE AND INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH THIS FEATURE
EVENTUALLY RECURVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY
RANGE. BOTH OF THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC CONCERNING THE LATEST
TROPICAL ACTIVITY
&&

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

latest ... more waiting is required