Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

more waiting is required

The first advisory you are waiting still is days away.

[HURAKAN]

more waiting is required

The first advisory you are waiting still is days away.

I wonder if it will ever be written just looking at the wave today.

[cycloneye]

After almost 50 pages I think we have been teased as the real thing is going to occur in the other thread. Bring the official invest to stop the confusions.

[HURAKAN]

Not surprised at all.

[Blown Away]

The models have been generally shifting more westward but except for a few runs a recurve scenario missing the Caribbean and CONUS has been dominate run after run. The EC trough has been persistent, I just don't how folks like JB call for so many landfalls given the persistent troughs and lower Atlantic pressures?

[SFLcane]

Just pure speculation but GFS has continued to shift a bit south over the past few runs putting puerto rico/northern islands and significant risk.

[cycloneye]

I took out the models part of the title because is very confusing all the talk of mergings. Bring on 95L please!!!

[cycloneye]

Here is the area SW of the CV islands where test invest 31L is.

[blp]

Yea with all this confusion you really can't put too much stock in the models at this point other than for the overall pattern. We could have 33L for that matter being the one to develop and that one is much further south and east which could change the models runs. It is amazing how dependent we have become on the models. Without the models this area would draw little interest.

I took out the models part of the title because is very confusing all the talk of mergings. Bring on 95L please!!!

[Sanibel]

ITCZ convection is starting to 'stick' in the middle Atlantic. This should indicate the season is starting to ripen.

Conditions come first. So whether a wave looks good or not if it doesn't have favorable conditions to support it it won't prosper. I think the models might not be picking-up the dry conditions.

[KWT]

Gosh its a mess in temrs of the models, the models generally sit and stew over the next 2 days as the ITCZ disturbance tries to lift away from the rest of the ITCZ.

This is a very good one to discuss though thats for sure!

ps BA, thing can change rather quickly in the tropics, there is troughing though for sure, but that may not be a good thing once the ITCZ drops southwards again, may just prevent some systems from burying themself into CA.

[ColinDelia]

This is a very good one to discuss though thats for sure!.

Sure is. I can't wait to see the 12z.

[Sanibel]

The last time the models cooked a merging of waves Colin developed.

[KBBOCA]

Hi all,
Greetings from flooded and very muddy Nouakchott, Mauritania (18-06N 015-57W). My location tag says I'm in Boca Raton - that's where my US home is - but I work here in W. Africa much of each year.

Here in Nouakchott we've been hit with about 60mm of rain in the past 3 days from these systems. 60 mm of rain doesn't sound like much, but much of the city is built on salt marsh, below sea level, and there is no sewer system, so give us 20 mm of rain or more, we get serious flooding. I just read of 500 families being evacuated in the district of the city where I live due to severe floods and damaged homes.

So, given my interests on both coasts of the Atlantic, I've been watching these waves for days and reading this discussion with great interest. I know there's a lot of frustration over the confusing models, and the uncertainty re: what if any of these test invests will develop. But I have to say, I find this a fascinating period. It's not the same as tracking a Cat-5 storm and the "wobble wars" - but as an opportunity to try to better understand and learn more about cyclo-genesis, this is an AWESOME discussion.

I for one am THRILLED to know about the test invest sites and be able to get much more info about these waves over W. Africa. Thanks so much for all the promets and expert amateurs who have been keeping this discussion going, and providing much insight and analysis.

Keep it coming please!

Now I'm just praying that GFS-horror scenario hitting the Carolinas and the whole east coast doesn't verify...! (And we wouldn't mind a few days respite from rain here in Nouakchott, either!)

[Hugo1989]

Many questions, PL31 and PL33 be combined? develop one of them or both? who should be thinking about the NHC?

[cycloneye]

Many questions, PL31 and PL33 be combined? develop one of them or both? who should be thinking about the NHC?

Is a quagmire right now to describe what is going on.

[ColinDelia]

KBBOCA, thanks for the info. I agree with you completely.

Situations like this are just as interesting to me as watching cat 5's (well, almost anyway)

[Frank2]

The wave/low that moved off the African coast on Sunday had a fairly well-defined low-level circulation (it's now nearing 25N) but the current convection moving off the coast doesn't seem to be as well-organized (it appears to be a horizontal V-shaped area), and from it's lack of convection the "first" wave that merged with the ITCZ 24 hours ago is ill-defined at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-vis.html

P.S. Some might call the above "Frank at his best" (LOL), but it is what it is (ATTM) - we'll see what happens...

[SouthFLTropics]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde Islands. On the other hand maybe I've just been staring at satellite loops too long... Thoughts please...

SFT

[SFLcane]

102hrs..