Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[SoupBone]

i starting to think frank looking forward to 2011 season he put white flag on this season

I don't know where you're getting this from but Frank has been one of the more level headed posters on this forum this season.

[Aric Dunn]

High res sat from the area clearly showing a weak circulation just ese of the cape verde islands being pulled into the convection coming off africa..the extra vorticity should help get this going in the next 36 hours or so..

9 images and really zoom in.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z GFS is a big fish, I'm betting the 12z models all agree on a fish this time round, pretty obvious the troughing is still there.

Just like every year i have to use my analogy about the long range models.. they are all like a flag flapping in the wind ....

as for the 12z GFS Im not buying a stalled low off the NC coast for 2 full days... thats not likely to happen...

[KWT]

I wouldn't either normally Aric but the models seem to be trying to develop possibly a subtropical feature on the southern side of the high pressure to the north and thats what makes me think its a possible evolution.

I think Bermuda do need to watch this closely though, really wouldn't take much of a westward shift or a slightl rebuilding of the upper high to shift the system into Bermuda's region on that 12z run.

Either way I think its a player and probably a hurricane down the line as well so it will be good to watch this one!

[ColinDelia]

On the 12z GFS, 31 and 33 combine at 120 hours (see 950 mb vorticity)

[cycloneye]

FYI, no mention at 2 PM TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't either normally Aric but the models seem to be trying to develop possibly a subtropical feature on the southern side of the high pressure to the north and thats what makes me think its a possible evolution.

I think Bermuda do need to watch this closely though, really wouldn't take much of a westward shift or a slightl rebuilding of the upper high to shift the system into Bermuda's region on that 12z run.

Either way I think its a player and probably a hurricane down the line as well so it will be good to watch this one!

Just remember the Flag flapping in the wind....lol

[Hugo1989]

This is already a matter of time.

[hurricaneCW]

Well there's still nothing developing right now. The Atlantic remains very quiet. I guess a fish is the correct solution given the trough in the east. The 2nd system may be poised to get into the Caribbean though. Any idea when we'll get a TD/TS.

[ColinDelia]

2pm TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING ALONG
26N26W 18N27W 10N26W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 28W-33W.

[ColinDelia]

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps is interesting...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[KWT]

Nogaps just sit there and spin the system up right near the CV islands before finally kicking it WNW...the CMC has that solution yesterday but has since ditched it somewhat.

There does seem to be some sort of circulation as well.

[Frank2]

Thanks, SoupBone...

I'm trying to be sensible in my posts, though I understand what MWatkins said about my earlier post contradicting what could be there right now - well, you are right about the increase in moisture but that area still doesn't look very impressive - even the TWC OCM's mentioned that early this morning...

Also, Dr. Knabb this morning did mention the Atlantic ULL's that are persisting right now...

I can tell by the comments here there is a certain level of frustration going around, but being here in South Florida we look at the quiet as a blessing - there's enough to deal with as it is...

Frank

[KWT]

ECM showing a very obvious recurve this run, looks like a recurve is pretty much nailed on now, some very good model agreement on the pattern and we are now getting into the timezone where the models should have a decent grip on the upper synoptic players, at least on a large scale.

[hurricaneCW]

It's kind of funny how the whole recurve solution is nailed down, but we still don't even have a storm or anything to track.

[Blown Away]

The TAFB is on board showing a low moving west in 72 hours! I'm getting more confident in development!!

[Aric Dunn]

ECM showing a very obvious recurve this run, looks like a recurve is pretty much nailed on now, some very good model agreement on the pattern and we are now getting into the timezone where the models should have a decent grip on the upper synoptic players, at least on a large scale.

ummm.... your talking nearly 2 weeks !!! no nailed down it going to change probably half a dozen more times... and until something develops there is accuracy at all.. and then not until the trough shows up will a forecast become agreeable.. none of the features exists yet,..

[KWT]

To be fair its very rare to get something form above say 12N east of say 35-40W and actually become a land threat to anywhere bar maybe the far NE of the Islands and Bermuda HCW...thats why I was so confident this would be a fish even a long time ago...plus given we have had some decent east coast troughing as well makes it obvious...

Track could be quite close to Bill's judging from the models.

Aric, oh its not done for sure BUT the models are all in agreement of the track and there is a large enough margin of error that even if the first weakness didn't do the job, the 2nd almost certainly would.

ps, and actually the models show the players that recurve in place by 120hrs...thats actually pretty close and the sort of timeframe I'd expect the model to have a decent grip on.

[hurricaneCW]

ECM showing a very obvious recurve this run, looks like a recurve is pretty much nailed on now, some very good model agreement on the pattern and we are now getting into the timezone where the models should have a decent grip on the upper synoptic players, at least on a large scale.

ummm.... your talking nearly 2 weeks !!! no nailed down it going to change probably half a dozen more times... and until something develops there is accuracy at all.. and then not until the trough shows up will a forecast become agreeable.. none of the features exists yet,..

I kind of agree. We're basically saying a definite recurve on a system that's not even on the charts yet. There are still a lot of things to take into account. One is how quickly the system develops. The second is the feature off the east coast. It's more or less that hybrid like feature that's creating a weakness in the Western Atlantic. Models have it stalling out for a few days, thus the recurve around 60W. It's possible that the feature ends up weaker than shown or lifts out quicker.

At the same time, it's hard to argue against the Euro because it's been pretty consistent. Like things have been said over a week ago, the 1st will probably recurve but the 2nd system will be the one to watch. The gfs takes that one into the eastern Caribbean on its latest run.