Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[rockyman]

The 18z GFS, 12z CMC, and the 12z Euro show the possibility of another round of north central Gulf of Mexico home cooking:

12z CMC for Sunday night:


12z Euro for Tuesday morning (south of Mobile):

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[SouthFloridawx]

The ghost of TD05?

[LaBreeze]

Are you serious? Where and when?

[Wx_Warrior]

NOT AGAIN

[LaBreeze]

Do I continue to hear the song, "Another one bites the dust?"

[Wx_Warrior]

It poofs yet again but rain to begin the start of high school football on Aug. 27? BOOOO

[ColinDelia]

Yeah if you look at the vorticity output it is related to TD05


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa Bay-Ruskin morning AFD:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 180649
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...STORMS LINGERED FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND CONTINUE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY WITH MOST EVERYONE DRY
BY SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...AROUND -5C...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY AND SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAV POPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW SO BLENDED THE HIGHER MET POPS
IN RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT. WITH SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TO PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND AND STEERING FLOW MORE TO THE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST...THE COAST WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN THE
INTERIOR.

ON FRIDAY...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SINKING SOUTH TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER.

IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE HOT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 102 TO 107 EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK TYPICAL FOR MID AUGUST
TO BEGIN...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING DOMINATING AND THE AXIS TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING AN EASTERLY FLOW. A TROUGH WITH PACIFIC ORIGIN
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY AND THIS MAY START
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS DEPICTS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BY DAY 6 AND 7 ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL AND THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

[Steve]

As noted on active forums, it's the Guest that Woudln't Leave. What has it been like almost 2 weeks now? And a-possible-nother round with its offspring?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... x&loop=yes

[Wx_Warrior]

12z GFS

[Wx_Warrior]

[StormClouds63]

Re: Ghost of TD-5:

Drop silver iodide near its circulation center (if it has one) ... Project Stormfury wasn't a total bust, was it?

[xironman]

Isn't this the result of that little low that develops east of Florida and crosses over.

[Wx_Warrior]

[KWT]

I'm not sure this is TD5 anymore, the energy was easily trackable the 2nd time round but its not very easy this time round at all...if it were to develop odds are it'd be the next one on the list I'd imagine but who knows!

Its like the pattern is just on a constant loop.

[shell70]

This system remind me of a roller coaster that you can not get off of. It goes up and down and around. Will it please go bye-bye!

[flwxwatcher]

The 12Z EURO joins the home brew solutions in the Gulf and has it pretty much sitting off the West Coast of Tampa for several days. It's still in the long range but interesting to see the models starting to sniff this out.

[poof121]

GFS shows it as the same piece of vorticity, so, according to GFS, potentially TD #5 take 3...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010081812&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation