Too Cold To Snow?

[Ikester]

Okay, the title really does have something to do with this topic about cyclones. The chief and I were talking yesterday about this very unusual season heading forward. Frank (the chief) brought up something very interesting. There is all this discussion of how sea surface temps are warmer than ever and we're expecting this overwhelming season ect...First, there is not a single cyclone on this Earth right now (as of August 18th, 2010). I smell something fishy and it's not a storm headed to sea.

Follow me here. It has often been said that it can be too cold to snow. Here in Houston, snow usually falls when the temperature falls to 35 degrees or colder (as has been my experience the last few years). If it falls heavy enough, it will accumulate on the grassy surfaces and cars. Every once in a while we'll drop to 32 degrees or below and we'll have a nice covering for snowmen....the good heavy wet snow. Let's take those temps down to the teens. Your snow becomes powder as the moisture content drops. Now lets take those temps down to -50 below zero and now the air is so dry, that it is nearly impossible to get moisture to condense. Why doesn't it snow??? After all, it's certainly cold enough!!!!

Could the same line of thought be accurate for the tropics? Could there be a range of numbers (SST's) that are ideal for cyclogenesis. In 2005, the waters were hot, but not as much as this year. COULD** the above normal SST's, some of the warmest on record, actually work against formation of hurricanes? Think about it....if you have warm sst's, then the air above it is warmed more so than normal. Well to get condensation, you need lift. But if the air is warmer than normal heading into the atmosphere, could this actually prohibit formation? Now keep in mind that I am fresh out of school and this is just something the chief and I were kicking around last night. I was curious to get your thoughts....can it actually be too warm to form hurricanes?

[Frank2]

Frank (the chief) brought up something very interesting.

Huh? I didn't say anything!!!

LOL

Kidding - several meteorologists (here and elsewhere) did mention the thought that GW might increase the temperatures to the point that it would reduce tropical cyclone development for a number of reasons (although some said it might make those that do form stronger)...

However, the weak TS's this season (except for Alex) might challenge that thought...

[Ikester]

Frank (the chief) brought up something very interesting.

Huh? I didn't say anything!!!

LOL

Kidding - several meteorologists (here and elsewhere) did mention the thought that GW might increase the temperatures to the point that it would reduce tropical cyclone development for a number of reasons (although some said it might make those that do form stronger)...

However, the weak TS's this season (except for Alex) might challenge that thought...

Well let me be clear that I am no advocate for GW. I am in John Coleman's group (as well as many others) who think GW is the largest hoax in history.

[Nimbus]

The only direct analogy I have is boiling an open pot of water. If you put the stove top burner on high the water gets to a boil, but you may not see any surface steam until you lift the pot off the burner.

Mid August must be near the oceanic peak of heat content above 10 degrees north. The days are getting shorter and the average high air temperatures start to drop at the end of the month. Hurricanes being heat engines that are driven by the temperature differential between the ocean surface and the troposphere should respond to the cooler troposphere by September. Higher than normal SST's might also amplify the air movement in cold core systems such as TUTTS which would increase shear. Are there any studies?

I agree those first Cape Verde storms that encounter favorable shear conditions may be monsters this year.

[hurricaneCW]

Since the oceans are boiling, what would happen if we don't get tropical systems to cool them down and spread the heat out. Wouldn't it play a major role in our weather and climate patterns. Since the globe tries to balance itself out, having record highs sst's and no tropical systems to cool the ocean's down could be chaotic.

[Portastorm]

Since the oceans are boiling, what would happen if we don't get tropical systems to cool them down and spread the heat out. Wouldn't it play a major role in our weather and climate patterns. Since the globe tries to balance itself out, having record highs sst's and no tropical systems to cool the ocean's down could be chaotic.

I have seen reports that the most extreme regions of the Southern Hemisphere are having a very harsh, cold winter, including the South Pole. Perhaps that is the equalizer.

[Ikester]

Since the oceans are boiling, what would happen if we don't get tropical systems to cool them down and spread the heat out. Wouldn't it play a major role in our weather and climate patterns. Since the globe tries to balance itself out, having record highs sst's and no tropical systems to cool the ocean's down could be chaotic.

Unfortunately, we have no idea as our temperature data is scarce and doesn't go back thousands of years. Certainly this has happened before in milleniums past. I am sure we will have a major hurricane or two develop. I'm just saying I doubt we get to 18 or more. Maybe 10. LOL

[tolakram]

I think this will be an excellent question to ask at the end of the season.

Right now we've been in a rare blocking pattern that caused Russia to have an extreme heat wave, Pakistan to have extreme flooding, and the global patterns to remain fairly stagnant. The switch, that normally turns on and off, got stuck in the off position.

I think it's no coincidence that the Russian heatwave is breaking today and the models are all showing pattern shifts and more storms. The switch analogy is overused, but the dimmer is being raised for a while, how long we don't know.

I don't think it has anything to do with ocean temps and everything to do with instability patterns. La Nina is a piece, ocean temps are a piece, shear is a piece, instability is a piece, solar activity might be a piece. If we knew everything forecasting would be pretty darn boring.

/shrug

[Ikester]

I think this will be an excellent question to ask at the end of the season.

Right now we've been in a rare blocking pattern that caused Russia to have an extreme heat wave, Pakistan to have extreme flooding, and the global patterns to remain fairly stagnant. The switch, that normally turns on and off, got stuck in the off position.

I think it's no coincidence that the Russian heatwave is breaking today and the models are all showing pattern poops and more storms. The switch analogy is overused, but the dimmer is being raised for a while, how long we don't know.

I don't think it has anything to do with ocean temps and everything to do with instability patterns. La Nina is a piece, ocean temps are a piece, shear is a piece, instability is a piece, solar activity might be a piece. If we knew everything forecasting would be pretty darn boring.

/shrug

Fair enough. I just wonder if the abrupt 'switch' from a very strong El Nino to a strong La Nina, practically overnight, plays a part. Seems normally we go neutral for a while. This year, it almost skipped right over neutral it seems.

[tolakram]

Fair enough. I just wonder if the abrupt 'switch' from a very strong El Nino to a strong La Nina, practically overnight, plays a part. Seems normally we go neutral for a while. This year, it almost skipped right over neutral it seems.

I think that's a decent question to ask. I wondered, in another older thread, if the shift caused issues. The Ninos/Ninas are a symptom, not a cause, which is important. Winds don't change because La Nina is present, La Nina is present because winds changed.

So yes, I think it's a very good question. A strong la Nina might be as unfavorable as a strong El Nino. Or not.

[cvalkan4]

the models are all showing pattern poops
/shrug

Link please

[Steve H.]

Not a bad question. When SSTs are abnormally warm, obviously the hot air rises and can cause shear in the tropics. That is El Nino for the Atlantic basin when the Pacific heats up. Could SSTs across the globe being high cause a stagnation of air movement? Doubtful, since cooler air must come in to displace the warm air rising....cooler relatively speaking. But it is food for thought. Not familiar with hot air subsidence. But storms need cooler upper level temps to start the T'storms rolling.

[somethingfunny]

The more I look at 1998 the more I believe it is an excellent analogy to this year's climate.

If you check out this page.... http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... mes98.html

1998 featured record heatwaves and wildfires in Russia, a late onset monsoon followed by extraordinary flooding in the Indian Subcontinent (the Ganges experienced epic flooding in 1998, as opposed to the Indus), a record heatwave across the central United States (here in DFW we just barely managed to snap an 18-day streak of above 100 degree days today), a Category Four Hurricane Blas in the Eastern Pacific basin, and of course a record slow season in the Western Pacific and a very slow start to the Atlantic as well - Bonnie formed on August 19th near the Cape Verde Islands after a weak TS Alex earlier. And of course 1998 was dominated by a very powerful El Nino - much stronger than the one we just had - transitioning over the summer months into an equally powerful La Nina.

The similarities are glaring in my opinion. On a global scale, 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded. 2010 so far is the second hottest.

The reason I'm bringing this up is because what you're suggesting.... that global SSTs are so warm that hurricanes (the engines which transfer excess heat energy from the tropics to the poles and mid-latitudes and maintain the global thermal balance) can't operate as they normally would....well, that's downright frightening. AGW or not it suggests that a tipping point has been reached and without that transfer of energy the global climate could decent into unprecedented chaos.

The good news is that 1998 ended up with an above average Atlantic season - the final storm, Nicole, dissipated on December 1st. The Western Pacific was the weakest season ever recorded but several supertyphoons hit the Philippines in October. That might not seem like good news but they do depend on tropical cyclones for a big part of their rainfall totals each year.

So if we end up having a record low season for tropical cyclone activity - globally in particular - then it will be time to worry. But I hope that as we get closer to the Autumn Equinox, longer nighttimes will lessen the extent of those stable inversion layers in the tropics and allow for a bonanza of tropical activity.

[Frank2]

Meteorologists have published many papers on heat transport and hurricanes, so it might help to search that topic, but it makes sense that if the mid-latitudes are very warm, then the cycle of a hurricane trasporting heat to the mid-latitudes would be disrupted if the destination is already as warm as the place of origin...

Frank