Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Fego]

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Going wnw... looks like the the ridge colapsed imo.

[Vortex]

and there she goes...next....

[Vortex]

With this pattern be an early fall for the NE and may need to wait until October for any serious threats....

[Fego]

Lets see what the long range shows in terms of other systems.

[Vortex]

If this verifies the Extended CFS has been on the money....

[OURAGAN]

Good shape between 30 and 35 W

[cycloneye]

Weaker high pressure equals negative NAO and that is forecast for the next 2 weeks.

[Plant grower]

Well who is ready to get drilled by some canes this season? Because from what we are looking at this season is about to show its ugly face. I know we have been laughing so far,but in the end I do believe the joke will be on us. Alex was the true bench make of what this season is about to become.

[Macrocane]

I don't trust the 18z runs, they always show something very different from the other runs although it's still to early to believe in the models we don't even have a well defined low, let's wait for a couple of days more and we will have a better idea of where it is going to go.

[KWT]

No reason not to believe the 18z, its a clone of the 12z ECM pretty much, they pretty much both recurve at 55W...if anything the trne dis east not west today.

That being said I bet if it were to focus in on the convection at 30W that would throw the models a curveball!

[Ivanhater]

We have a problem when the models are developing different area. The area in front seems to be consolidating which is further west than some models were showing.

[SouthFLTropics]

If I had to venture a guess of a possible center forming it would appear that it would be at 11N and 31W. Earlier today I thought it was to the NE of this location but I didn't have a full range of loops to look at during that time.

SFT

[gatorcane]

We have a problem when the models are developing different area. The area in front seems to be consolidating which is further west than some models were showing.

OK I bet you NHC pulls the trigger and issues a code for the TWO in 30 minutes with words like "some slow development is possible over the next couple of days" (probably code yellow).

With it being so out west of where the GFS has it in the 18Z, wonder what that means for the Leewards threat?

[hurricaneCW]

Talk about an early recurve, soon this thing will be recurving at 50W. Absolutely pathetic. The ridge is completely dead and not only that. The gfs doesn't develop anything after this storm, very inactive. After all that, we see a very fast recurver and not much else. I'm still wondering if the storm will even form, it's been 10 days since we started tracking the African wave and still nothing.

[gatorcane]

Talk about an early recurve, soon this thing will be recurving at 50W. Absolutely pathetic. The ridge is completely dead and not only that. The gfs doesn't develop anything after this storm, very inactive. After all that, we see a very fast recurver and not much else. I'm still wondering if the storm will even form, it's been 10 days since we started tracking the African wave and still nothing.

The track is not set in stone by any means. Unless it is showing recurve with the 5 day timeframe (preferably 3 days) anything beyond that can change.

[UpTheCreek]

So let me get this straight. At 150 hrs. out, it can be written off as a fish?

Cool! You guys are my heroes!

[cycloneye]

FYI, no trigger from NHC at 8 PM TWO.

[KWT]

Talk about an early recurve, soon this thing will be recurving at 50W. Absolutely pathetic. The ridge is completely dead and not only that. The gfs doesn't develop anything after this storm, very inactive. After all that, we see a very fast recurver and not much else. I'm still wondering if the storm will even form, it's been 10 days since we started tracking the African wave and still nothing.

The track is not set in stone by any means. Unless it is showing recurve with the 5 day timeframe (preferably 3 days) anything beyond that can change.

To be fair we really aren't far away from the 120hrs mark though before the first step in recurvature begins, I mean all the parts are in place by that time.

I personally not putting too much faith into the exact positions of what the models are showing, they will shift back and forth, but hard to argue against a recurve.

Will be interesting to see how that front runner tries to get going, its actually got decent Vort with it...

[gatorcane]

FYI, no trigger from NHC at 8 PM TWO.

wow I'm a bit surprise I must say.....seems like that area Ivanhater pointed out is looking quite suspicious...

[hurricaneCW]

So let me get this straight. At 150 hrs. out, it can be written off as a fish?

Cool! You guys are my heroes!

When the major models forecast the same pattern for days on end, in this case a hefty trough in the west Atlantic, then yes, all storms are likely to recurve in the East Atlantic. The trend has been further east, a stronger weakness, and a more persistent trough. I'd say the chances of a recurve at or east of 60W are at 80-85% right now.