"An active Atlantic hurricane period coming" - Jeff Masters

[Pearl River]

CZ...you could be right. Like some have posted, instead of worrying about the numbers busting, we need to look at why they busted and learn from it, if it turns out to be a bust.

[hurricaneCW]

hurricanecw wrote

Scientists are going to have a lot of explaining to do in regards to the season if the quiet keeps up because this is rather unprecedented. If those storms don't pan out, I don't think anything will.

Maybe from a scientific point it could be unprecedented because of the energy that is available, maybe not. There have been several seasons of 4 or less storms.

1914 - 1 1917 - 4 1919 - 3 1883 - 4 1972 - 4 Tropical systems. There were 3 ST systems 1983 - 4


In other words it does happen.

I know it does happen, but it's not supposed to happen this season. It's not even supposed to be average this season, given the potential factors in the preseason, we should be well above average.

[thetruesms]

They're professionals. They're paid to make as accurate a forecast as possible. See your point, but inaccurate seasonal forecasting can lead to complacency. I really question the value of having seasonal forecasts at all. A busy season can produce systems w/little or no U.S. impact, while an inactive one can result in an Andrew-type storm.

Not really. Most seasonal forecasts are research efforts, and don't claim to provide actionable information, though people often try to do so anyway, since they have demonstrated some skill over climatology.