WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE

[StormingB81]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

and this one is east of PI...wow two at once!

[StormingB81]

this one not so much

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

[Typhoon10]

I think we could be in for interesting next 7 days, whether it develops, which direction it takes, etc.

I have a funny feeling it will go W, towards Hainan again

[StormingB81]

looking better on radar but dunno what the shear or anything else around it is

[oaba09]

This one doesn't look good based on the loops...The one on the west of our country seems to have a better chance...

[Typhoon Hunter]

This one doesn't look good based on the loops...The one on the west of our country seems to have a better chance...

Will be interesting to see what develops but it's got a defined LLC with unflagged 20kts winds and good deal of convection. It's looking pretty damn good at the moment!

[KWT]

Hmmm its interesting but the models aren't exactly too impressed, this WPAC season is just useless isn't it!

[dexterlabio]

What's the matter with all the basins in the world nowadays. I haven't seen something worth to watch for. Invests pop out everywhere but they all tend to disintegrate and die completely. It will be disappointing if the remaining 4 months of the year will have nothing.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOOSELY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME ENHANCED INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. A 191725Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS BANDING FORMING IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. THE
LOWER LEVEL, AS DEPICTED BY THE 36GHZ IMAGER, STILL SHOWS A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 200000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1016 HPA
AT 35N 156E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 143E 42N 143E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 34N 156E 40N 160E 40N
150E 40N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 53N 168E SOUTH 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 176W WEST 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 109E NW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 19N 122E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 43N 151E ESE 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[phwxenthusiast]

i hope a TS form out of this, models have shown this...

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 123.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 120.2E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM HAS PERSISTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER THE BUBAYAN ISLANDS
OF THE LUZON STRAIT WHILE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
STORM HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRRAIN OF
NORTHERN LUZON. ALTHOUGH 200204Z AMSU IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE
TRANSIT THROUGH THE STRAIT, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING UNDER A REGION OF
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[StormingB81]

I thought this one would go quick to land looks like it has stopped. Also doesnt look like how it did a few hours ago

[Typhoon Hunter]

I thought this one would go quick to land looks like it has stopped. Also doesnt look like how it did a few hours ago

Here's the 06z position from JMA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 122E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Big difference in location from JTWC:

TPPN11 PGTW 200910

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (NW OF LUZON)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 18.9N

D. 118.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/0551Z 19.0N 120.0E TRMM
20/0558Z 19.0N 120.0E AMSU


ROSS

KNES more in line with JMA:

055
TXPN27 KNES 200941
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 18.0N

D. 122.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES .25 FOR DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

[StormingB81]

Maybe It can be a storm for today...That will be a Birthday Present..lol finally a storm...lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

Unlikely to be a named storm but a TD is certainly possible. Just needs to consolidate around a defined LLC then we should be away. Good model agreement on this developing with CMC, GFS, UKMET and ECMWF all spinning it up.

Happy birthday tomorrow!

[StormingB81]

WHere is it supposed to go..west?

And thank you!

[KWT]

Well convection has remained fairly strong, pretty difficult to tell though without Vis imagery exactly what is going on with this system right now though, but I wouldn;t be shocked to see this become a weak system down the line.

[supercane]

[KWT]

There does look like there is some sort of circulation there but it doesn't look closed at all and it isn't that impressive at the moment. Looks somewhat sheared as well.