Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

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cycloneye
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1081 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:16 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I would love to see an image a bit further E. :wink:


Further east? You got it. A biggie in Central Africa.

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1082 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:46 pm

GFS is running...

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1083 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:53 pm

Take it away guys...

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1084 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:59 pm

42 hrs

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1085 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:01 pm

its also slightly developing the low near 20n
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1086 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:08 pm

72 hrs...

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90 hrs...

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1087 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:13 pm

108 hrs...

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1088 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:21 pm

120 hrs...

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132 hrs..


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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1089 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:31 pm

156 hrs...

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180 hrs....


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fishy fishy fishy....
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1090 Postby Riptide » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:33 pm

It might have been able to miss that trough if that damned closed low wasn't in the North Atlantic. Still time for things to change in the synoptic pattern.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1091 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:42 pm

with the 12Z EURO biting on this track....still hard to go against it...though I think its going to get a lot more west than models are indicating.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1092 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:42 pm

31L is up to 60 units of vorticity
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1093 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:48 pm

Is it possible that the models move 31L too slow because the gfs pretty much says this system moves east the first 6 to 12 hours which doesnt seem right unless theres a relocation farther east
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1094 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:50 pm

8-) This is looking like the one I'm glad is gonna be a fish. We don't need anymore large scale disasters. But the ocean heat content needs to be reduce for sure.
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#1095 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:54 pm

Still way, way, way too early to declare fish. Or anywhere. Knowing our luck, none of these will develop and it'll be another 100-page thread for nothing.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1096 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:55 pm

tailgater wrote:8-) This is looking like the one I'm glad is gonna be a fish. We don't need anymore large scale disasters. But the ocean heat content needs to be reduce for sure.



http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

I would agree with that....
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#1097 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 3:26 am

Models are probably now without any doubt of a recurve, still it'll be a nice fish to track, the models really do take the pressure pretty low, I'd imagine we will get a major hurricane from this, cat 3/4 spinning away in the Central Atlantic away from any land....

Probably will be 95L today...
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Re:

#1098 Postby leanne_uk » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:14 am

Away from land and right over to us to give us some early Autumnal weather lol

KWT wrote:Models are probably now without any doubt of a recurve, still it'll be a nice fish to track, the models really do take the pressure pretty low, I'd imagine we will get a major hurricane from this, cat 3/4 spinning away in the Central Atlantic away from any land....

Probably will be 95L today...
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1099 Postby alan1961 » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:14 am

Area gradually coming into view on sat..should get
a good kick start on development with it being in
close proximity to the ITCZ which it should get a
good feed of moisture from...yes i'd go along with
the 95L invest tag today kwt... :wink:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm
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#1100 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:07 am

The 6z GFS keeps the low in place just SW of the CV Island for the first 42 hours with no deepening. At that point it starts heading slowly west. Between 54 and 60 hours it starts to deepen. The 18z last night had the low begin to deepen after 90 hours and sat in place for roughly 60 hours.

There's an elongated area of increasing vorticity (70 units this morning) that according to the GFS consolidates and becomes more symmetrical for the next 3-4 days before heading west.

At 102 hours the GFS has this approaching hurricane strength at roughly 13N, 43 W and then turning more NW
Last edited by ColinDelia on Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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