Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

This should be an official invest later today.

[ColinDelia]

I agree cycloneye

[OURAGAN]

And is more south than forecasted

[Blown Away]

TAFB does not think a low will develop for at least 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

FYI, no mention of Eastern Atlantic area at 8 AM TWO.

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM TWD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1201.shtml?

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N33W 18N32W 14N30W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF
25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

[gatorcane]

I can't believe how large the weakness is that the GFS and ECMWF develop by day 7 across the Central/Western Altlantic...that is something you see in October or November not August.

[ColinDelia]

The GFS doesn't begin to deepen the currently weak low until 54-60 hours from now. It has it at 1010 mb in 54 hours, 1008 mb in 60 hours and then 1006 mb in 66 hours. If they give that credence and you use the 48 hour rule then the first mention might occur in one of the next 3 TWO's (18 hours is 48 hours before 1006 mb forecast) . It will be interesting to see what today brings.

For reference Bonnie was a 1006 mb 30 kt depression on the first recon
TD two was a 1005 mb 30 kt depression on the first recon

[wxman57]

I can't believe how large the weakness is that the GFS and ECMWF develop by day 7 across the Central/Western Altlantic...that is something you see in October or November not August.

That's what the ECMWF was forecasting from 4 months ago - very low pressures across the Basin. That means a good chance of recurvature for Cape Verde developments. But I wouldn't count this one out yet. There are other signs that the ridge could be stronger than forecast. I'd say this system is about 2-3 days away from developing. Saturday or Sunday. And I think it could be the first Cat 4 of the season.

[Cryomaniac]

From 8 AM TWD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1201.shtml?

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N33W 18N32W 14N30W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF
25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

In before someone posts the word "Next!"

[hurricaneCW]

The large weakness is generated from a trough of low pressure of the east coast that the gfs turns into some kind of tropical/subtropical system. In fact it's almost strong enough to be a hurricane either tropical or subtropical around 40N. Is the gfs really over doing this feature or not?

[TampaFl]

Current MJO as of 8/17/10.

[Frank2]

The current TWD sounds like what some here said yesterday (lol)...

Both waves are just not very impressive at this time...

[StormClouds63]

Last evening KFDM met forecast that the wave off the African coast (30L? or 31L?) had a good chance to become a hurricane ... and was very likely going fishing. Weakness between 2 ridges clearly showing on the animated forecast track shown last evening. Don't know if Bermuda would be impacted.

KFDM is usually right on the money ... so at least we may have a system to track in a few days, but it appears no threat to the U.S.

2/3 of the way through August and still waiting ... let's see if we might finally have Danielle by early next week. Will it be the season's first major or just another Colin?

[StormClouds63]

I can't believe how large the weakness is that the GFS and ECMWF develop by day 7 across the Central/Western Altlantic...that is something you see in October or November not August.

Gator:

Nothing about this season, at least so far, makes any sense. I was thinking the season peaks much later than 9/10, but the set-up you're describing is typical of an October or even early November scenario. Maybe this whole season is an anomaly?

[Sanibel]

The current TWD sounds like what some here said yesterday (lol)...

Both waves are just not very impressive at this time...

Offhand, as the MJO phase shifts toward moderately positive the odds are it will become more favorable. Especially as prime time approaches.


Mark Sudduth was just on The Weather Channel with his equipment-loaded, hurricane hunter SUV. He has 20 decals of hurricanes he's been in with it on its side.

[BigA]

I can't believe how large the weakness is that the GFS and ECMWF develop by day 7 across the Central/Western Altlantic...that is something you see in October or November not August.

That's what the ECMWF was forecasting from 4 months ago - very low pressures across the Basin. That means a good chance of recurvature for Cape Verde developments. But I wouldn't count this one out yet. There are other signs that the ridge could be stronger than forecast. I'd say this system is about 2-3 days away from developing. Saturday or Sunday. And I think it could be the first Cat 4 of the season.

Wxman, what signs do you see that make you think that the models are underdoing the strength of the ridge?

[SFLcane]

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing I notice too is that the other low(wave) that suppose to have followed this one is no longer being developed. Looks like this is it for awhile....

[ronjon]

On this SAT loop you can see the broad CC turning as this system comes together (speed it up) south of the CV islands. Won't be long now till we see an INVEST. This could be a rather large storm as the three convective masses seem to be coming together.

west african loop