Interesting flare-up just N of the Leewards...

[Vortex]

Visible imagery this morning certainly suggest mid-level turning. In fact, per latest Vis there appears to be a MLC near 19/61. Convection while not deep at present continues to fire and expand... The area continues to sag S slowly while expanding. Limited model support but given the time of year and "look" I think it's worth mentioning.

Snip from 8:05am TPC:

AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N
BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...

[Sanibel]

I noticed that too. In other years when everywhere else isn't producing you see systems develop in this area off a ULL or frontal remnant. This one, however has the same weak look prevalent around the basin.

[AtlanticWind]

I was looking at that this morning also.i think as you reach the peak of Hurricane season you need to watch any area of convection .

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[HURAKAN]

ULL, yes, another one! lol

[Vortex]

[Vortex]

However, with convection firing and it being later August I can remember John Hope many years back making reference to several of these systems that over time can work there way down to the surface and go warm core..

[Frank2]

It convection seems to be due to the ULL:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Portastorm]

It convection seems to be due to the ULL:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

King TUTT rules again!

[Frank2]

I though of that earlier, but didn't mention it out of fear that folks might punch me in the stomach (oomph)...

LOL

[ROCK]

Might be a ULL but it did try to get to the surface this am...it got as far as mid-level....needs to be watch...I highly doubt models can forecast ULLs transitioning to warm core...

Paul

[bvigal]

If you go back and read the daily discussions from NWS-SJU, you'll find that most of the rain we've had since last week in May has been reflection from TUTT/ULL. Not contradicting anything said here, only pointing out that this doesn't reflect a new overall pattern, it's the same one we've had all summer. When you see a 1022mb or stronger surface high pressure sitting stationary over Bermuda, or further south, THAT will be a change in the pattern with some significance to cyclogenesis/movement of storms.