Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

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Re: Re:

#1201 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 3:44 pm

ronjon wrote:
Actually KWT, the pattern depicted by the models doesn't look progressive at all - its blocked up with the trough and huge low getting stuck off the mid-atlantic coast for literally 5-7 days!


The upper level is still rather progressive though I agree its getting slower with time and the pattern does become a little slack towards the start of September.

Aric, yeah I agree with all you say there is of course things that could throw a spanner in the works but even a weak sheared system will likely recurve...take a look at Colin the models forecast the trough to be of similar strength, that still recurved and it barely was a TC at times, a strong hurricane which this very likely will be by day 6-7 will recurve I'm pretty sure.

As for the GFS, I rememer it trying to do the same trick with Bill...the ECM got it bang on that time with the troughing and this time round the ECM hasn't once shifted from the east coast trough in the last 5 days...when you've got 10 runs all showing more or less the same broad evolution (granted there are differences in exact placement) it really brings big confidence, esp when its doing the same thing with both a weak and a strong system and all models do the same thing...its not like we even have one model that is showing anything other then the odd run here and there that does anything different.
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1202 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 19, 2010 3:51 pm

I think this discussion by HPC this afternoon will shed some light to the interesting discussions here about how strong or not the trough will be.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
202 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 22 2010 - 12Z THU AUG 26 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ACCOMPANYING 50 MEMBER
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 7. ALL IN ALL...THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL FULL
LATITUDE COLD FRONT KNIFING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A
CLOSED...STACKED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HOLDING ITS GROUND...OR
SHOULD SAY OCEAN SURFACE...OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS A DISTINCT POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES...WHICH ALLOWS THE ATLANTIC TROUGH TO JUST SLOWLY SHEAR
APART IN PLACE...OR DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THE ECENS MEAN
IS STILL PERFORMING STRONGLY ENOUGH AT THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIME RANGE
TO RELY ON ITS VERSION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

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#1203 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 3:57 pm

Yeah I think that just backs up the point a few of us have been making Cycloneye, there is very high confidence on a recurve solution probably between 50-60W, could get a little west/east of that but nowhere near enough to be a threat to anywhere bar maybe Bermuda.

Now come on 95L lol!!
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1204 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:01 pm

Image
Image
Image

Is this increase in vorticity significant?
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1205 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:04 pm

The models often have a very hard time predicting the upper flow pattern and locations of highs/lows even in the short term. Just think back to how perfect the models were forecasting the position of the upper high would be for the redevelopment of TD 5. Perfect? I don't think so. It was ripped to shreds by shear. And this was in a region with the highest concentration of upper air obs. Same models forecast hostile winds aloft ahead of Alex-to-be.

All 3 main current models (GFS, EC, CMC) are also forecasting development off the Mid Atlantic Coast next Monday/Tuesday. What if they're wrong? Perhaps the Bermuda High will build westward more quickly and/or the high over the eastern U.S. may move offshore more quickly, blocking any recurvature.

I do agree that it looks like this system may well be a fish, but I'm not telling our NE Caribbean clients that it's guaranteed to miss them yet.

Personally, I'm hoping for a very large and intense hurricane out of this (good chance of that). If it is big and strong enough, I knock out my 3 closest competitors in our office hurricane pool who all have 17/10/5 for their picks. The first tiebreaker is tied to size and intensity, and I have the highest value by just a hair. ;-)
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#1206 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:23 pm

I think your going to get your wish Wxman57, I'm personally thinking maybe something close to the strength we saw with hurricane Bill but who knows!

Really can't be far off from getting invested now though!
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#1207 Postby Vortmax1 » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:40 pm

Too funny wxman57.
May all the rest of the systems be FISH!

Kind of odd this isn't already an Invest.
Last edited by Vortmax1 on Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1208 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:41 pm

I guess Ill come back in a couple days when/if the system has formed and after everyone stops placing bets (speculating) on which model/Run is correct 2 to 4 days on development and 7 to 10 days out on track... Or whenever it becomes an invest so everyone can speculate on the models in the model discussion thread .. :roll: :wink:
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1209 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:47 pm

Read the 1st 3 pages of the Frances thread for a good example of how convinced everyone can be of a "fish" and then it doesn't work out.

viewtopic.php?f=57&t=96356&start=0

Now i'm not saying one way or another. I just think it is too early and more unknowns than knowns to even have an opinion
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1210 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:54 pm

ColinDelia wrote:Read the 1st 3 pages of the Frances thread for a good example of how convinced everyone can be of a "fish" and then it doesn't work out.

viewtopic.php?f=57&t=96356&start=0

Now i'm not saying one way or another. I just think it is too early and more unknowns than knowns to even have an opinion



HAHA.. read the first post by Mike Watkins.. that sounds all to familiar.. lol i thought I was reading a post in this thread.. lol thanks for looking that up I though about it but was over searching for it..
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#1211 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:00 pm

Very interesting to read the Frances posts!

However I don't think the agreement was nearly as strong as this with Frances and the models were no where near as good as they are now even back in 2004. Whilst its possible it doesn't recurve, if your only going to take climatology it'd still scream recurve....and thats before you take into consideration the longer term pattern this month has been for strong troughing...and then take into consideration the models are in VERY good agreement, I'm not sure there is a single model that shows something different, that to me is the key point.

I'd say a 90% chance this recurves east of 70W...probably 98-99% risk it doesn't hit the US IMO...but you never can be absolute with the tropics!
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1212 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:05 pm

Careful KWT, people may pull your post back up if it does hit the U.S like the Frances recurve posts. :lol:
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Re:

#1213 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:06 pm

KWT wrote:Very interesting to read the Frances posts!

However I don't think the agreement was nearly as strong as this with Frances and the models were no where near as good as they are now even back in 2004. Whilst its possible it doesn't recurve, if your only going to take climatology it'd still scream recurve....and thats before you take into consideration the longer term pattern this month has been for strong troughing...and then take into consideration the models are in VERY good agreement, I'm not sure there is a single model that shows something different, that to me is the key point.

I'd say a 90% chance this recurves east of 70W...probably 98-99% risk it doesn't hit the US IMO...but you never can be absolute with the tropics!


Still your basing this on something that does not exist yet.. lol not even an invest ... but of course your entitled to your opinion.. :lol:
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1214 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:13 pm

For comparison (Jeanne), the GFS is about as accurate at predicting the position and strength of troughs and ridges at 7.8 days today as it was at 7 days in 2004. That is some improvement but not enough for this tough job. What's the 48 hour error in forecasting the strength and position of a non-invest "Large area of disturbed weather"?

I'm all game for the fun guessing games and I do think they are fun. Only that my guess is "I don't know!"
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1215 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:17 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Careful KWT, people may pull your post back up if it does hit the U.S like the Frances recurve posts. :lol:


Haha oh for sure, don't worry I probably would bring it up myself! :P

If I was to see something change I'd quite happily back away from the idea I had and jump onboard another.

At the moment the models would have to all bust, and I'm not sure I've ever seen them all fail...but I'm sure its happened before, maybe something like Dean...hmmm...and yeah I know its not formed yet but when you have such powerful agreement its rather tough for me to back off from the models and go for another solution...

FWIW I think the models have gone too far east now, but even if they get to 65W...thats still wayyyy east of the states.
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1216 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:18 pm

ColinDelia wrote:For comparison (Jeanne), the GFS is about as accurate at predicting the position and strength of troughs and ridges at 7.8 days today as it was at 7 days in 2004. That is some improvement but not enough for this tough job. What's the 48 hour error in forecasting the strength and position of a non-invest "Large area of disturbed weather"?

I'm all game for the fun guessing games and I do think they are fun. Only that my guess is "I don't know!"


exactly.. I dont know either... lol nobody does :) best we can do is current analysis after that its all hopefully an educated guess lol the error actually starts with the current analysis by anyone, so its best to only go 48 hours out at the most especially with just an area of disturbed weather. A series of short term forecast add up to a long term forecast :)
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1217 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:18 pm

KWT wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Careful KWT, people may pull your post back up if it does hit the U.S like the Frances recurve posts. :lol:


Haha oh for sure, don't worry I probably would bring it up myself! :P

If I was to see something change I'd quite happily back away from the idea I had and jump onboard another.

At the moment the models would have to all bust, and I'm not sure I've ever seen them all fail...but I'm sure its happened before, maybe something like Dean...hmmm...


it happens all the time !!!
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#1218 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:20 pm

18z GFS. 1005 mb at 72 hrs
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#1219 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:21 pm

The 18z GFS moving WNW at 120hrs around 45-47W and 18N...not quite as strong on this run thus far on the Vort anyway...
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Re: Large area of disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic

#1220 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:32 pm

That's one strong Cane

Image
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