Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

Yeah I feel pretty confident about this one having a good chance at becoming the seasons first major...I suspect even a cat-4 isn't out of the question with this one but we will see...like Aric has said I'd like to actually have a system first in that respect.

[Ivanhater]

Well it's not the first trough that gets it, it's the second that kicks it out....First one doesn't quite get it, so still some play room

Just looked at the 12z to compare...The first one got it on the 12z and there was not a second one to catch it. So if the 18z is right in not getting it the first time, it may kick back westward as you see in the 18z run with it stalling before a second trough barely catches it

If that 2nd one isn't there, well...

[StormTracker]

Aric D./KWT, I love & respect both of youz guyz knowledge and opinions! You both have proven to be very good with your predictions about what you think is going to happen with tropical systems, but at this time, as Aric keeps stating, this is all speculation until this thing develops and we can lock down coordinates on an LLC! Don't get me wrong, this is the time I learn the most by staying quiet and reading every post of every day! But you guyz are forcing me to have to play catch-up and read 6-8 pages a day based on pure speculation! LOL!!!

[KWT]

GFS recurves close to 60W,in fact the 850hpa Vort is slap bang on 60W this run...thats close enough for Bermuda to need to watch for sure and Newfoundland would probably get hit providing the trough was sharp enough.

[Aric Dunn]

Well it's not the first trough that gets it, it's the second that kicks it out....First one doesn't quite get it, so still some play room

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_204m.gif

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_228m.gif
[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_252m.gif[]

that is actually a change from the 12z ... this run it almost stalled and went westerly as a ridge dropped down from canada..

[Ivanhater]

Well it's not the first trough that gets it, it's the second that kicks it out....First one doesn't quite get it, so still some play room

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_204m.gif

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_228m.gif
[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_252m.gif[]

that is actually a change from the 12z ... this run it almost stalled and went westerly as a ridge dropped down from canada..

Yep just compared the 12z...the trough lifts up much faster. The second trough barely catches it. BTW the 12z didn't have a second one at all so that is interesting...

Or, it doesn't gain enough latitude...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric D./KWT, I love & respect both of youz guyz knowledge and opinions! You both have proven to be very good with your predictions about what you think is going to happen with tropical systems, but at this time, as Aric keeps stating, this is all speculation until this thing develops and we can lock down coordinates on an LLC! Don't get me wrong, this is the time I learn the most by staying quiet and reading every post of every day! But you guyz are forcing me to have to play catch-up and read 6-8 pages a day based on pure speculation! LOL!!!

Im not speculating .. lol

[Aric Dunn]

actually the 18z kicks out the low off the east coast much quicker..

[KWT]

The run does show how hard it'll be to not have a recurve, even though it semi-misses the first connection it still barely gains 5 degrees west before it gets hit by the 2nd, and if the 2nd doesn't get it, the next one down the line would.

The best shot this has is to totally miss the 1st trough but I just can't see that happening.

The 18z looks more realistic to me though, its not that common in August for a system to get totally lifted out by the first upper troughing, it normally does take a couple bite of the cherry.

ps, actually its 3 upper troughs that do the trick, the first induces the WNW motion at 120hrs as a weak feature runs eastwards towards the upper trough in the E.Atlantic, the 2nd lifts it way north and the 3rd finishes the job.

[Riptide]

actually the 18z kicks out the low off the east coast much quicker..

Another reason to not dismiss this system completely.

[Vortex]

Lets wait and see where the center actually forms then once models initialize it accuratelt then begin serious conjecture...

[Aric Dunn]

actually the 18z kicks out the low off the east coast much quicker..

Another reason to not dismiss this system completely.

exactly...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

[KWT]

The GFS int.point for 6hrs into ythe future looks very good indeed, so no reason to doubt the evolution of the GFS run.

The first part of the northward lift begins as soon as soon as 96hrs...just 4 days time. If the models were all to get the broad pattern from 4 days out then wrong I'd be worried.

FWIW, it'd be foolish to totally rule this one out, I know I'm talking very agressivly in faovur a recurve but honestly unexpected things do occur. I suppose I just got burnt by Bill last year...

[Ivanhater]

The run does show how hard it'll be to not have a recurve, even though it semi-misses the first connection it still barely gains 5 degrees west before it gets hit by the 2nd, and if the 2nd doesn't get it, the next one down the line would.

The best shot this has is to totally miss the 1st trough but I just can't see that happening.

The 18z looks more realistic to me though, its not that common in August for a system to get totally lifted out by the first upper troughing, it normally does take a couple bite of the cherry.

ps, actually its 3 upper troughs that do the trick, the first induces the WNW motion at 120hrs as a weak feature runs eastwards towards the upper trough in the E.Atlantic, the 2nd lifts it way north and the 3rd finishes the job.

There could just as easily not be anymore troughs to get it if it misses the first one. That is why you can't be too sure about recurving. The 12z GFS didn't have anymore troughs after the first one to kick it out. You get a mix of the 12z and 18z and you would likely have the storm moving back west after the miss.

[KWT]

There could just as easily not be anymore troughs to get it if it misses the first one. That is why you can't be too sure about recurving. The 12z GFS didn't have anymore troughs after the first one to kick it out. You get a mix of the 12z and 18z and you would likely have the storm moving back west after the miss.

Oh indeed and thats another reason why I won't totally dismiss it getting further west then progged by the models...but there is alot of difference between it getting further west from where the models are progging and a landfaller...

We will just have to see, not much more we can do but just wait and see how this evolves...IF the 1st trough is overdone (I'd be very dissapointed with the models if that happened after doing so well with many of the storms thus far) then the threat to the NE Caribbean really increases...

Oh and the loops show this is really getting a good shape now, I see an invest in the next 12hrs and formation in the next 36hrs...

[Ivanhater]

Either way, the 18z GFS has an IMPRESSIVE Hurricane

[ConvergenceZone]

based upon how strong that looks,
we should all feel blessed. That would be a huge blow to
an already messed up economy if a storm that intense
slammed into the east coast....

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The -NAO has been predicted for months and I kept asking how can JB and others be calling for so many landfalls?? Then it was La Nina was going to push tracks farther south? I just don't get it, -NAO to me means weak ridging and farther east recurves??

Given the current and projected -NAO, CV storms are less likely to be a U.S. threat. It's the closer-in development in the Caribbean and SW Atlantic that would be the threat to the U.S. Anything forming by the CV islands will have a hard time making it west to the U.S.

Please explain further because to my understanding you are describing a positive NAO...not negative.

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be interesting. I'm not sold yet on a recurve either, there are still way to many slight variations that could cause this to miss one of the troughs and get turned back toward the west.