#6 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 20, 2010 12:54 am
TCFA issued:
WTPN21 PGTW 200430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 109.2E TO 17.8N 105.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 200400Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT FIXES BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 192137Z TRMM IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WHILE
REMAINING OFF-SHORE. THE LLCC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A POLEWARD DRIFT
AND MAY REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LONGER DURATION ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. NEARBY SURFACE AND SHIP REPORTS VERIFY THAT
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LLCC HAS DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM AND INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. PRESSURE HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210430Z.//
0 likes