2010 WPAC Season

[Typhoon10]

I know once again, HKO's model is not the most accurate, but see what they are predicting for 72hrs time!!

http://www.weather.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[StormingB81]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I know once again, HKO's model is not the most accurate, but see what they are predicting for 72hrs time!!

http://www.weather.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

That model is about as reliable as a chimpanzee on crystal meth, not worth spending an ounce of time on.

On the other hand for the last two runs ECMWF has hinted at multiple TC genesis across the Wpac, one in SCS and other near Okinawa. This has got my attention and I'll be eager to see if this trend continues in further runs.

[Infdidoll]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

There was a water spout...and guess who got video of it? This gal right here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yS4O6mOmhE

[Typhoon Hunter]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

There was a water spout...and guess who got video of it? This gal right here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yS4O6mOmhE

Brilliant! What a great capture, well done!!!!!

[Infdidoll]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

There was a water spout...and guess who got video of it? This gal right here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yS4O6mOmhE

Brilliant! What a great capture, well done!!!!!

Thank you! Nothing compared to the stuff you've caught, but it was still pretty neat to see a water spout being born. First water spout I've ever seen.

[KWT]

Still can't believe how slow its been...offically only 1NS ahead of the Atlantic which has hardly been explosive either!

At this rate we will be giving 1998 and 1977 a run for thier money as one of the slowest seasons of modern times!

[StormingB81]

with 2 invest out there lets see if the WPAC wakes up finally!!!

[Macrocane]

There was a water spout...and guess who got video of it? This gal right here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yS4O6mOmhE

You're lucky, that's a very nice video and the best thing is that most of the time waterspouts are not destructive.

[Typhoon10]

I know once again, HKO's model is not the most accurate, but see what they are predicting for 72hrs time!!

http://www.weather.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

That model is about as reliable as a chimpanzee on crystal meth, not worth spending an ounce of time on.

On the other hand for the last two runs ECMWF has hinted at multiple TC genesis across the Wpac, one in SCS and other near Okinawa. This has got my attention and I'll be eager to see if this trend continues in further runs.

Yes have heard that TH but, 1) Its the only site I know that does predictions, are there anymore that are reliable or I will be able to understand? 2) But surely as its a government website, the computer model should at least be semi professional?

[StormingB81]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

There was a water spout...and guess who got video of it? This gal right here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yS4O6mOmhE

Saw the video and yes I am very jealous! good job!

[Chacor]

for the last two runs ECMWF has hinted at multiple TC genesis across the Wpac, one in SCS and other near Okinawa.

JTWC has both 93W (SCS) and 94W (NNE of Philippines) up to FAIR, maybe it's these that the Euro's developing.

[Aslkahuna]

Talk about crazy stuff there was a report of a waterspout off the coast of Okinawa today. The storm was loud but I didnt think it was that bad.

Okinawa is at about the same latitude as the Florida Keys (which get about 150 waterspouts/year) and studies show that most spouts form from lines of TCU along outflow boundaries from showers rather than thunderstorms. I've seen both large funnels and a landspout tornado in the Philippines from TCU showers with tops around 25000 ft. Tornadic waterspouts which on occasion come ashore further north in FL are actual mesocyclone tornadoes that form over water and are more dangerous.

Steve

[supercane]

Yes have heard that TH but, 1) Its the only site I know that does predictions, are there anymore that are reliable or I will be able to understand? 2) But surely as its a government website, the computer model should at least be semi professional?

1) Other regional computer model web pages (not necessarily more reliable, but present):
KMA (Korea): http://www.kma.go.kr/ema/ema03/ra2_eng_index.html
CWB (Taiwan): http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/forecast/nwp/nwp.htm?
NCEP Cyclogenesis: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
And an example of GFS output for the West Pac: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/

2) National centers vary in the amount of resources and experience available and therefore in the level of sophistication their models possess. If you read the Typhoon Committee Operational Manual, you can see that countries like the Philippines and Vietnam use relatively unsophisticated models (e.g., barotropic) in comparison to the spectral models run by NCEP, ECMWF, and JMA. The reason that the latter models are more dependable lies in the superior physics, not necessarily that they are government issued.

[StormingB81]

Well what a gloomy birthday Atleast storm or rain if it is going to be this cloudy around...lol

[supercane]

Happy birthday, StormingB81!

[StormingB81]

Thank you

[Infdidoll]

Happy birthday! Mine is Tuesday.

[Typhoon10]

Happy Birthday both of you! Mine is 1st April, dont laugh!

[StormingB81]

:new-bday:

Happy birthday! Mine is Tuesday.

Well I will say Happy Birthday now! Because I have duty on Tuesday!


Typhoon..I did crack I smile when I saw that but thats gotta be cool though. Id have fun with it