Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 200532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[dwsqos2]

Relative to the past few runs, the Euro is pretty weak through day 7.
Of course this run also begins to develop a pretty healthy tc to this area's east around day 4.

Also, the 0Z run of the Euro progs much higher 500 mb heights than the 12Z. (Actually, that's been the pattern for a couple of runs. 0Z is the "ridge" run, and the 12Z is the "trough" run.)

[KWT]

The system probably will develop but give it time, alot of the systems this year that have developed have been slow developers.

The models still show the story, they are in amazing agreement now, all recurve about 57-58W...pretty impressive agreement!

[dwsqos2]

Like I said, it's just paranoia. Though this system has far more model support, I remember watching the progged intensification of 93L and Colin collapse on the globals at relatively short range. Granted this doesn't have the issues of those two, but after a bunch of paltry systems, it's easy to be paranoid.

[KWT]

What I will say about the ECM is the model look much less troughy in the long range and I'd imagine if the tropical cyclone didn't develop to its east and induce a weakness all of its own then this system may well have gotten close to Bermuda given the high that forms to the north.

[ColinDelia]

06z GFS still takes 60 hours from now before the pressure gets below 1008 mb.

[gatorcane]

Euro and gfs continue to send this to fishland far far away from the united states. Also looks to comfortably miss the islands.

[ColinDelia]

sorry, wrong thread. deleted.

[cycloneye]

I thought we we going to wake up with invest 95L, but it looks like the waiting will continue for it.

[ColinDelia]

Yeah still waiting for an increase in organization to become 95L.

[cycloneye]

UKMET at 00z: I think the initial position is a bit north.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.6N 33.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2010 14.6N 33.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2010 16.0N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2010 16.7N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2010 18.4N 42.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2010 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2010 22.2N 47.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2010 24.5N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 26.6N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[ronjon]

Interesting 00Z Euro run. Shows ridging building to the north of this system after 10 days and develops a sister hurricane to its east. I'm not sold on the recurve as this model run really slows down this storm. Add in the building heights as both the ECM and GFS ensemble runs trend toward a positive NAO after 10 days (i.e. GFS moderately positive and ECM neutral). This troffiness may not last in early September.

[cycloneye]

The longer it takes to organize into a TC and also what track it starts to take, the timing of the weakness encounter (or lack of) down the road comes into play.

[blazess556]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[bvigal]

I thought we we going to wake up with invest 95L, but it looks like the waiting will continue for it.

Hola, Luis! Maybe you woke up just a bit too early...
000
WHXX01 KWBC 201125
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100820 0600 100820 1800 100821 0600 100821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.5W 11.8N 28.2W 12.1N 30.2W
BAMD 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.5W 12.0N 28.1W 12.6N 30.2W
BAMM 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.4W 11.9N 28.1W 12.4N 30.2W
LBAR 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.9W 12.3N 29.1W 13.2N 31.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100822 0600 100823 0600 100824 0600 100825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W
BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W
BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W
LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5W
SHIP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS
DSHP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Yes, the thread is finnally locked!!.

Go to Active Storms forum to continue the discussions.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109074&p=2039747#p2039747