ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Colin
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/# click on the invest and then choose what image you want then animate is on the left..

[Hugo1989]

Wow, this really will rage as far north as the models predict?

[gatorcane]

So I would say 100% chance of development and a good chance of it headed to fishland, barring no Bermuda threat (maybe Canada??)....should really pump the ACE up.

Perfect storm to track given the high chance it won't impact land (looking at the models over the past several days)

Troughiness is all over the Atlantic.......

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is a TD now just by looking at it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... on a side note, impressive how empty the Atlantic looks for this time of the year

[Aric Dunn]

[x-y-no]

I'd say it is a TD now just by looking at it.

It looks fairly close, but I'd wait for some better organization before calling it. Looks to me like the MLC is a fair bit WNW of the developing LLC and both are pretty elongated E-W.

[HURAKAN]

Aric, do we have twins? That's what it looks like from the loop you posted.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do we have twins? That's what it looks like from the loop you posted.

yeah I mentioned that on the previous page

[srainhoutx]

I still expect things to take a while to consolidate. Certainly an interesting spin with the wave further E as well.

[wxman57]

I'd think that eastern system should be drawn into what will be Danielle in the next 2-3 days. Should make for a large and powerful hurricane.

[cycloneye]

That second spin will keep 95L trucking westward right Aric?

[hurricaneCW]

Hmm maybe we'll get a 2 for 1 special. 95L is consolidating very nicely and the classic Cape Verde spin up is something that I've been waiting for this entire season. Another day or so before it becomes a TD. I hope this becomes a powerful fish spinner, enough to generate some good waves along the east coast.

[StormClouds63]

Not an official forecast, just my opinion.

I agree high chances for development, but in this unusual season of 2010, I wouldn't go 100% ... maybe 75%. Perhaps a 50% chance of reaching "major" status of category 3 or higher.

Everything points to development ... upper air environment and sea surface temperatures favorable. If by chance this one doesn't develop, "season is a bust" threads will begin to multiply. Nonetheless, we should have Danielle early next week and a decent system to observe and track. If it develops, high chance Danielle goes fishing.

[Aric Dunn]

That second spin will keep 95L trucking westward right Aric?

well at the least it will take things a little longer to consolidate ...

[Macrocane]

So if we're talking about twins, the Euro scenario is not completely unlikely, is it?

[gatorcane]

Take a look at the convection blowing up along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S, the beginnings of a large pesky trough starting to form. We can see 95L on the far bottom right of the image. This convection will develop a low that will be the beginning of a series of troughs should keep future Danielle away from the U.S and quite possibly the islands....

[gatorcane]

Look how deep this trough the GFS is showing this time next week, looks like a fall-like trough. Maybe we'll get a cool front out of this here in South Florida?

[KWT]

We'll see how deep the trough actually digs in real life, I'm on the recurve train and have been right from the start as others have said (I gave this a 1-2% chance of not recurving the other night!) BUT the models have enough uncertainty to really think Bermuda is at big risk from this one.

The Euro ensembles FWIW suggests Bermuda hit is possible...

[KWT]

I'd think that eastern system should be drawn into what will be Danielle in the next 2-3 days. Should make for a large and powerful hurricane.

Hmmm could have two competing systems here, the western one is broad and large whilst the 2nd one is tighter but is smaller...I'd suspect the first one is still heavily embedded into the ITCZ...

This could be a very interesting evolution!