ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

If that trough is as deep as the gfs says it will be, then we shouldn't be getting near seasonable temperatures in the low 80s up here. It should be quite a few degrees below normal but that's not what the forecast shows. I definitely think the trough is way overdone, it's too early for such as powerful trough to develop, in late September yes, in late August, no.

[gatorcane]

If that trough is as deep as the gfs says it will be, then we shouldn't be getting near seasonable temperatures in the low 80s up here. It should be quite a few degrees below normal but that's not what the forecast shows. I definitely think the trough is way overdone, it's too early for such as powerful trough to develop, in late September yes, in late August, no.

It's very possible, around August 13th.....2004, what a trough that came down and gave parts of Northern FL lows in the low to mid 60s....of course it pushed Charley into SW Florida.

I actually think we will see a deep trough given the globals are all showing it to some extent. Perhaps the GFS is a bit aggressive on it. I think the Euro has it right.

[hurricaneCW]

If that trough is as deep as the gfs says it will be, then we shouldn't be getting near seasonable temperatures in the low 80s up here. It should be quite a few degrees below normal but that's not what the forecast shows. I definitely think the trough is way overdone, it's too early for such as powerful trough to develop, in late September yes, in late August, no.

It's very possible, around August 13th.....2004, what a trough that came down and gave parts of Northern FL lows in the low to mid 60s....of course it pushed Charley into SW Florida.

It's very rare though at this time of the year, the trough that scooped Charley up was incredibly rare. I know that it's possible but a trough that strong is highly unlikely. Although I'm not discounting it because of the -NAO and +PNA do yield a trough in the east. Long range models flatten the -NAO and +PNA thus the increased ridging in the Atlantic.

[KWT]

Yeah its quite a strong signal for a east coast trough...I just can't see why people seem to be almost dismissing it like its going to be downgraded...the first trough is now just 72hrs out and there has been no change and total agreement on its strength and how it starts to act upon 95L at 96hrs...the further east this stays the further east it probably recurves I suspect in this pattern.

The real question is how strong it gets, I see no reason for this not to go upto say 125-135mph.

[wxman57]

Kind of looks like an eye forming on the rotation east of the invest:

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah its quite a strong signal for a east coast trough...I just can't see why people seem to be almost dismissing it like its going to be downgraded...the first trough is now just 72hrs out and there has been no change and total agreement on its strength and how it starts to act upon 95L at 96hrs...the further east this stays the further east it probably recurves I suspect in this pattern.

The real question is how strong it gets, I see no reason for this not to go upto say 125-135mph.

I say Cat 5, 170mph.

[tolakram]

You mean ... eye like feature.

[Frank2]

Looks like two LLC's out there - Dr. Knabb's "cone" graphic was adjusted during the morning to show a pretty strong trough west of 50W (based on the 12Z models)...

[somethingfunny]

I say it peaks as a Category Two. My reasoning is unscientific - the past two Danielles in 04 and 98 were both out-to-sea Cat2 storms.

[KWT]

I tell ya what though wxman57 that feature is beginning to become real interesting its got a good circulation on it and its tight.

Puts the invest they are watching to total shame, that maybe the one to watch!

[wxman57]

You mean ... eye like feature.

Yeah, eye-like feature. Not a true eye, I'm sure. Wonder what it would be called if it was in the central Gulf of Mexico? It's about twice the size of 2008's Marco.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to say the least wxman57...

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like a TD at least, it probably would be if it was in the gulf. Very impressive little entity. I assume it will get shredded by 95L's much larger circulation.

[KWT]

I say Cat 5, 170mph.

Wow that'd be pretty amazing, there are a couple of recurvers that have become that strong, Cleo was estimated to become a cat-5 in 1958 though I think recon was not using the correct Extrap for the surface-flight level winds...so the 160mph winds were probably overdone and probably down closer to say 145mph, still a strong hurricane for sure though.

I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see a category-4 come from this but it depends on exactly how far west it does get really.

[KWT]

You mean ... eye like feature.

Yeah, eye-like feature. Not a true eye, I'm sure. Wonder what it would be called if it was in the central Gulf of Mexico? It's about twice the size of 2008's Marco.

Whilst I agree I've gotta admit, the way the low level clouds wrap the whole round is pretty interesting, it looks pretty defined but probably just a visual illusion

[Frank2]

Yes, I see an eye-like feature, too, though as we know rapidly developing systems often mean a very early recurve...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Atlan ... ne_Frances

Frank

[KWT]

Its not the system the models are suggesting Frank, its a totally other system.

I'd assume that whatever that is will rotate around the broad low that is further west and possibly slam into the CV islands, well probably not slam but give them something.

Probably a decent MCV that has formed over water and those sometimes do develop, though not sure there have been many over in that part of the basin...

ps, someone posted the microwave imagery on easternuswx....and...it actually is probably a low level circulation that is pulling convection around itself, possibly would match the critera for at least a depression if not a small TS...

[Parungo]

Kind of looks like an eye forming on the rotation east of the invest:

Loop:

[hurricaneCW]

Nice wave in west-central Africa on that loop. I wonder if that would become something in the future.

[KWT]

That system could well make this evolution more complicated because whilst I'd still favour a large cyclonic gyre over a small system that looks to have a tight closed LLC...but for sure its another factor to keep an eye on...maybe it gets 96L soon?