ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

[KWT]

I'm going to touch a little on the track now. A recurvature is what seems most likely right now with 2 very amplified troughs digging down and kicking 95L towards the NE and out to sea. That would be scenario #1, the most likely. But we have scenario #2, a least likely scenario. If 95L slows its forward motion thus having the trough miss it, a massive ridge, that amplified the trough in the first place, will build back in over the S.E US and into the subtropical Atlantic. So in other words, if scenario #1 happens, a Bill (2009) track is likely. But if scenario #2 happens we may see a track similar to Frances (2004). Given the current model trends I'm much more linear towards scenario #1, however, the recurvature depicted by the models seems too far east to me. If we do see a recurvature, it will most likely be as far east as to put Bermuda in danger.

Yeah I do agree with those options, I suspect though the 1st trough at least isn't going to dig down nearly deep enough to wizz the system up on the first time of asking and I really wouldn't be shocked to see a slowdown and possibly some short term bend back towards the WNW/NW which could make a difference to somewhere like Bermuda and possibly Newfoundland depending how deep the final kicker digs.

I think personally somewhere between 65-70W which as you say puts Bermuda at risk, I just can't see things being quite as far east as the models expect, there does tend to be some errors in the models that of course it'd be stupid to totally ignore.

[Frank2]

Wow - that sure is a quirky looking weather system, and as others said it looks more like a Pacific monsoon trough and not the per usual isolated African wave...

Not sure what that means for future development, but as KWT said it might be awhile...

Frank

[KWT]

Aric, looks like to me there maybe a tighter circulation forming down at 11/26, not sure its closed yet in terms of the smaller circulation but its improving...meanwhile the feature to the east is still looking pretty good....IMO probably a TD...but its the NHC view of things that obviously count.

[Frank2]

It could be a small TD, but notice that it's now moving NW...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, looks like to me there maybe a tighter circulation forming down at 11/26, not sure its closed yet in terms of the smaller circulation but its improving...meanwhile the feature to the east is still looking pretty good....IMO probably a TD...but its the NHC view of things that obviously count.

yeah the main CIRC is pretty obvious its slowly tightening up. just south of the cape verde islands. the wind field is closed in general but there are still a couple boundaries in there and its still fairly broad. another 24 to 36 hours and we should be really close..

[KWT]

It could be a small TD, but notice that it's now moving NW...

Yeah and the broad cyclonic turning from 95L will force the system NW into the drier air eventually and that'll probably kill of the system but still a neat looking system for sure!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Aric, interesting MCV spinning around 13N 10W. Development is very unlikely since it'll probably just get sucked in by 95L's larger circulation.

[StormClouds63]

Gatorcane:

I don't understand this pattern either. Your last image posted looks like a classic October or November trough ... not late August. I still don't understand the dynamics we're seeing in 2010. The good news? If that "troughiness" hangs around the U.S. east coast, whatever does develop as a CV system is most likely headed out to sea. Bermuda may be threatened, but not the U.S. mainland.

In 2004, along the western GOM, we had cool fronts already moving through in mid-August, but no such luck this year.

I still do not anticipate overly conducive conditions developing which would support a sudden burst of activity over the next 6 weeks. The actual number of named systems will fall short of the anticipated numbers forecast in June, IMO.

This 95L has the potential to be the strongest system so far in 2010, but even it's not a 100% guarantee. It's an odd year ... not even like 2004, 2006 or 2009. It's a classic lesson, though, that water temperatures mean nothing if other conditions are unfavorable.

[Macrocane]

They don't even mention the very obvious system east of 95L in the last TWO. They did mention a low in the TWD but they don't seem to be very enthusiastic with it.

[KWT]

Probably don't think its lasted long enough to need a mention, afterall it could just be a strong MCV that has developed recently which whilst can be the spark for a TC to develop usually takes a bit of time.

I suspect the NHC think its all part of the same broad circulation and looking at the way its drawing in the same SW flow as the circulation to the west, I'd tend to agree with that.

[CrazyC83]

Probably don't think its lasted long enough to need a mention, afterall it could just be a strong MCV that has developed recently which whilst can be the spark for a TC to develop usually takes a bit of time.

I suspect the NHC think its all part of the same broad circulation and looking at the way its drawing in the same SW flow as the circulation to the west, I'd tend to agree with that.

IMO, forget a mention, I would issue a Special Advisory on that system as Tropical Storm (or Hurricane?) Danielle...

[HurrMark]

Still 40%

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

They don't even mention the very obvious system east of 95L in the last TWO. They did mention a low in the TWD but they don't seem to be very enthusiastic with it.

Because it won't be developing. It's going to get kicked northeastward into the SAL (which will help 95L), then it will get sucked in by 95L's larger circulation.

[knotimpaired]

There is nothing that says we are going to have a storm here in Puerto Rico.
Wish what you want, but us gals are going to go shopping Wednesday despite what you say.

[Frank2]

The latest TWO is about how I feel about this - nothing immediate it seems (other than that quirky swirl with the eye-like feature - apparently the NHC has determined that to be a "sophisticated eddy" more than anything - lol)...

[KWT]

Nah Frank it will take its time as these broad storms usually do but I'm betting by the time this gets to 35W we have our next TS with us.

[I-wall]

They don't even mention the very obvious system east of 95L in the last TWO. They did mention a low in the TWD but they don't seem to be very enthusiastic with it.

I wonder why? That system seems to be quite organized and is surrounded by convection. I'm shocked that they didnt at least mention it. It looks like a TD IMO.

[wxman57]

Eastern vortex seems to be weakening now. Can see another near 11N/24W. And another on the western side of gyre. Typical of the West Pac area. One will eventually take over and we'll get Danielle out of it.

[KWT]

Yeah the eastern vortex was still part of 95L and is heading towards more unfavourable conditions as well so thats probably why the NHC haven't done anything with it.