Global model runs discussion

[Macrocane]

That storm is 95L

[ColinDelia]

18z gfs. Tropical cyclone forms in boc at 312 hours. Looks like a closed low forms near cv at end of run - 384 hours

[flwxwatcher]

:uarrow: That storm is 95L

Yep, It's just one run but it's a big shift from the earlier runs which recurved it.. The EURO keeps the system weak and then strengthens it toward day 10 and it appears by this run to be a possible US threat.Of course; like I said, it's just one run and a long way off but it will be interesting to see if future runs keep with this solution.

[Steve H.]

Look at what the Euro does at the end of the run. It keeps the system weak, then it gets under a building high pressure system that takes it towards the SW Atlantic. I don't like that solution at all. But previous solutions didn't make sense for this time of year. What scares me is that this one does. I know it's early, but this one could end up being a serious threat to the CONUS.

[flwxwatcher]

Look at what the Euro does at the end of the run. It keeps the system weak, then it gets under a building high pressure system that takes it towards the SW Atlantic. I don't like that solution at all. But previous solutions didn't make sense for this time of year. What scares me is that this one does. I know it's early, but this one could end up being a serious threat to the CONUS.

Yes, your right.. If the EURO is correct the set-up looks to be one for a system to strengthen as it approaches the SE US Coast. Like you said it's early but something tells me the EURO might just be on to something.. we will see.

[ConvergenceZone]

I mentioned in another thread that the current eastern Atlantic wave seems to be it for August....We better enjoy the development of this one, as models are leaning towards nothing else forming for the rest of this month....
Looks like we are going into a lull after this one....

At least we will have our 4th storm in August and we won't have to wait until September to get it....
I think in September we will get 3 to 4 additional storms(providing we get a storm each week), which should bring our total to around 7 to 8 storms by the end of September....

[knotimpaired]

I mentioned in another thread that the current eastern Atlantic wave seems to be it for August....We better enjoy the development of this one, as models are leaning towards nothing else forming for the rest of this month....
Looks like we are going into a lull after this one....

At least we will have our 4th storm in August and we won't have to wait until September to get it....
I think in September we will get 3 to 4 additional storms(providing we get a storm each week), which should bring our total to around 7 to 8 storms by the end of September....

We have only had 1 named storm in August, Where are you getting 4?

[ColinDelia]

We have only had 1 named storm in August, Where are you getting 4?

He means 4th storm of the season in august

[ColinDelia]

0z GFS seems to form a TC in the BOC in 288 hours. This is 3 or 4 runs in a row though it has it weaker than the 18z

[ColinDelia]

GFS 18z run has a new CV storm at 300 hours

[KWT]

ECM ensembles and also the GFS ensembles suggest troughing weakens by 216-240hrs and if that occurs any CV system that forms deep enough would be at a much greater risk....

Now the models also tried to do the same thing 10-15 days ago and strengthen the upper ridge but it never happened so it could be just model fluff...but certainly needs to be watched, the development of some sort of weak upper ridge just as the conditions become real favourable over the Atlantic could lead to some very interesting thing in early-Mid September.

Time for another long range call, I think a Caribbean threat coming up near the 5-10th and possibly a Gulf threat a little later then that possibly from the same system...

[Ivanhater]

We could see one heck of a September coming up, and I mean crazy

[flwxwatcher]

Your so right.. I heard one Pro met also mentioning that the EURO weeklies were showing 13 systems after Sept 1st.. The signs are starting to emerge that the season is about to pick up in a hurry!!

[Stephanie]

We could see one heck of a September coming up, and I mean crazy

What is that a map of? I see it's divided into ocean quadrants. I'm not sure of what the activity is showing.

[Steve]

Octants. That's one of the ways they predict and show the phases of the MJO. If I remember right, the farther away from the circle, the greater the corresponding chances of development. The circle is mostly neutral as is Octant #4. Numbers 1 and 2 (and I think 8) are where the MJO & upward motion is most favorable in the Atlantic.

I'm sure one of the experts can explain better, but that's my novice understanding.

Edit: Scroll down a little in this page until you start seeing the maps and read this guy's take. It might help you understand a little better:
http://weather.vivelohoy.com/blog/Storm ... trynum=725

[Stephanie]

Thank you Steve. So now it's showing that the MJO is favoring activity back into the Atlantic basin from West Africa, west to the Caribbean.

[Stormcenter]

Wow we can't even get 1 in the last part of Aug. and all of the sudden this switch is going
to come on and we have 13 after Sept. 1.
Well it sure will be interesting just to see if this pans out.

Your so right.. I heard one Pro met also mentioning that the EURO weeklies were showing 13 systems after Sept 1st.. The signs are starting to emerge that the season is about to pick up in a hurry!!

[Steve]

Oops.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANIELLE

[cycloneye]

GFS has been showing a GOM development for the past runs on long range.

Once again at the 18z run

[ConvergenceZone]

any speculation on where that gulf system is going to come from? Is there anything out there now giving clues? I'm scratching my head on this one....