ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

Oh I agree but its a 2 way thing on the ECM, its both very weak compared to the other models and also stronger with the ridging for sure.

The 18z usually is pretty close to the 12z ECM I've noticed in the past so this maybe a little clue if anything is changing synoptically...

Fun times, bring on the crow if it happens haha!

ps, Ronjon the 12z is suggesting a pattern change, its the first run that really does suggest a much larger threat.

[Wx_Warrior]

Totally agree. I'll wait for a few EURO runs before it happens, but certainly entertaining at this point.

[NOLA2010]

The EURO always seems to be very west biased though

[Ikester]

Wow, can we say Ike much?

[KWT]

The EURO always seems to be very west biased though

Yeah thats true from what I've noticed of the model overtime...

Still its a plauseable solution if the upper high were to develop instead of troughing...but it is a totally different solution from every other model...

Its the ECM vs every other model out there...I know the ECM is good...but for now I'd still have to side with all the others, esp giving what every other ECM run has done in the last 5 days as well...

So are we going to take one run of the ECM over every other model run for the ;last 5 days...hmmm....not just yet I wouldn't but certainly can't dismiss...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like we may have some interesting days coming ahead here. Like some people have said here we will have to follow how the computer models trend over the next few days.

[ronjon]

Oh I agree but its a 2 way thing on the ECM, its both very weak compared to the other models and also stronger with the ridging for sure.

The 18z usually is pretty close to the 12z ECM I've noticed in the past so this maybe a little clue if anything is changing synoptically...

Fun times, bring on the crow if it happens haha!

ps, Ronjon the 12z is suggesting a pattern change, its the first run that really does suggest a much larger threat.

Oh KWT, you know I'm just pulling your chain. The Euro could flip back tomorrow to the strong trof and I'll have some explainin' to do. It's one run but I peaked at the 10-15 day CMC ensemble run and it showed a pattern change (more western atlantic ridging) plus the last 3 or 4 GFS ensemble runs have us transitioning into a positive NAO which translates to stronger ridging. We shall see.

[KWT]

Oh I agree about a possible pattern change.

Something else to note is if this one doesn't pick up much latitude at all for the first 4 days then the first trough won't be enough to lift it out enough...all the models now agree with that and it seems reasonable hence why I never thought it would recurve before 55W...my call was between 60-70W and thats where I'll stick now.

The main difference comes as soon as 120-144hrs on tonights runs, with the 12z ECM actually developing a slight upper ridge near 60W...whilst all the other models have the polar opposite!

Now I will agree with anyone who says we cannot be certain because we have lost 100% model agreement.

[Wx_Warrior]

If this EURO 500 is right, this is GOM bound.

[KWT]

Of course if the ECM is right...its about as strong as Bonnie was at the same point by 240hrs!

Difference being conditions look good for strengthening on the 12z ECM, Bonnie's was a disgracefully poor set-up to strengthen in.

[terrapintransit]

If this EURO 500 is right, this is GOM bound.

According to Weather Undergrounds model runs, it appears to possibly be a fish at this point...

[ROCK]

If this EURO 500 is right, this is GOM bound.

According to Weather Undergrounds model runs, it appears to possibly be a fish at this point...

as do all other models....a few days ago, I couldnt budge from a recurve scenario given all of the guidance....but with one rogue run of the ECM I am aboard now.....whos with me?????

[Blown Away]

Yah but Gatorcane it weakens to a barely closed low on this run...which is a massive flip from every other model and also its on previous operational runs.

However its the Euro so lets not totally dismiss it for showing something different...its the nightmare set-up though, a bit like Andrew where it nearly dies in the Atlantic and by the time it strengthens the set-up aloft suddenly is more condusive to send it westwards.

Euro at 240 hours...strong ridge to the north, headed west towards the Bahamas but weak, however, there would be plenty of time for it to strengthen if it were to head towards Florida:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082012!!/

Kinda hard to give any credit to that run, the low crosses 20N around 45W. How many systems have crossed 20N around 45W and move as far west as the Bahamas? Very low probability of that run.

[KWT]

Haha not even close yet Rock, I want at least 2 runs from the ECM to even entertain the thought.

Interesting, but totally against all other guidence and could easily be an outlier!

[ROCK]

Yah but Gatorcane it weakens to a barely closed low on this run...which is a massive flip from every other model and also its on previous operational runs.

However its the Euro so lets not totally dismiss it for showing something different...its the nightmare set-up though, a bit like Andrew where it nearly dies in the Atlantic and by the time it strengthens the set-up aloft suddenly is more condusive to send it westwards.

Euro at 240 hours...strong ridge to the north, headed west towards the Bahamas but weak, however, there would be plenty of time for it to strengthen if it were to head towards Florida:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082012!!/

Kinda hard to give any credit to that run, the low crosses 20N around 45W. How many systems have crossed 20N around 45W and move as far west as the Bahamas? Very low probability of that run.

IKE.....

[Dean4Storms]

I hate to say it, but I think the 12z ECM is much more realistic with what time of year it is, what we've seen much of this year and with the NAO headed toward a positive phase by the end of the month.

[MWatkins]

It's not just one run of any model...again it's the trend.

Yesterday, the GFS, Euro and others had a gigantic trough over the western Atlantic and a huge hurricane-like feature weakening the ridge...from the north over the central Atlantic.

Last night, the GFS was still on that idea, but the Euro left some ridging behind and trapped the cyclone out to t+240

Today, the GFS no longer develops the north Atlantic hurricane feature...and the Euro is even stronger with the W Atlantic ridge than it was last night. The GFS leaves more ridging in the west Atlantic too..

The models are going to change, again, I assure you of that.

But watch the trend...and right now the trend is away from gigantic trough and strange looking upper disturbance weakening the ridge.

We, of course, have no choice but to keep watching...but I would suggest stop looking at any specific model track in the extended, and look at the trend toward how the steering features are developing in the models.

MW

[Ivanhater]

Didn't Andrew, Frances and Jeanne all look like fish too. It's not even a close call on the Euro...nothing but ridging pushing it west.

Now, hopefully everyone has gotten off the "for sure" and "certainty" train and back to analyzing the models

[Typhoon_Willie]

Heck Ivanhater throw in Hurricane Betsy as well he he. That storm sure looked to be a fish until high pressure turned it into Fla.

[KWT]

IKE.....

Yeah though that didn't get to 20N till 45W so it don't count!

Honestly though if it were to get to 60W at 20N then the odds of a threat do relaly increase, esp if the system does find itself beneath a developing upper high...FWIW the CMC 12z do suggest the upper high builds back a little by 240hrs, still not exactly strong but its there.

The ECM doesn't make no sense though in making it so weak, shear certainly isn't a problem on the 12z ECM, it just probably can't gel together very well because of the various vort features...who knows I suppose its possible.