ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

The east coast trough is much weaker this run and the ridge is extended farther west.. also a good deal slower too

[KWT]

What I find really interesting is effectivly the small E.Vortex does a Fujiwara around the bigger one and when its coming up from the south to north 95L tracks near due west, then it lifts out as the small vortex comes round the other side, its clear as day on the 12z Vort map!

Love those sort of small scale interactions.

[ConvergenceZone]

The east coast trough is much weaker this run and the ridge is extended farther west.. also a good deal slower too

wow, interesting, hopefully someone will post the model runs

[KWT]

Heading close to NW between 102-114hrs....

In fact 24hr motion between 90-114hrs is nearly exactly NW, up at 21/50.

[ColinDelia]

18z GFS keeps a double Vort structure by 42hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042m.gif

That's really interesting.

[KWT]

Motion between 114-138hrs is still due NW...BUT it is slowing right down and I don't think the upper trough is strong enough to lift it out...but it probably is far enough north now that unless a decent upper ridge builds it recurves...

[ConvergenceZone]

Motion between 114-138hrs is still due NW...BUT it is slowing right down and I don't think the upper trough is strong enough to lift it out...but it probably is far enough north now that unless a decent upper ridge builds it recurves...

Since model maps aren't being posted anymore, does anyone have a link to them?

[srainhoutx]

Since model maps aren't being posted anymore, does anyone have a link to them?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks srainhoutx

[KWT]

Vort map at 156hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_156m.gif

Steering is pretty slack but a slow drift still to the NW....

[USTropics]

For those who are on mobile devices or do not have access to the images:

48 hours


72 hours


96 hours


120 hours


144 hours

[KWT]

Motion between 150-174hrs....NNW but the 12hrs between 162-174 actually shows a slight east of north motion...

Recurving from the looks of things...so the 18z GFS is having none of it.

This run makes it perfectly clear it doesn't matter how weak the trough is its the fact its there in the first place and therefore a hurricane will get picked up by it nearly every time...actually east of the 12z run!

Trough connection isn't amazing strong though so it may stall out again before another upper trough comes along.

[USTropics]

Steering currents look to break down at 120 hours as the trough begins to lift out. The ridge appears to try and build back in but the system is too deep and far enough north that it continues to move (at a very slow pace) N/NW for the next 48-72 hours.

144 hours


168 hours

[KWT]

Yeah, if the system was at say 20N or even 23N for example, the GFS set-up for 180hrs would sure suggest it needs watching, there is a big weakening of the upper troughing yet further by 180hrs to the point where its nearly a nonplayer but by that time the damage is done.

I still see no reason to buy into the ECM idea just yet, need to see if it backs off or actually supports its ideas on the 00z tomorrow!

[Weatherfreak000]

The Euro usually doesn't forecast systems to be too strong, and it's not backing off on development by any means. It's not so good with intensity.

I'm glad to hear a promet agree with this notion i've been having. DEFINITELY would like to see it remembered by all.

[Ivanhater]

Noticing the pattern change. The GFS lifts out the trough and is replaced by ridging. I could care less the GFS has this gaining so much latitude so early. Most likely it is breaking down the ridge too fast anyway, giving the bias. So you tweak some biases out and you have a totally different situation.

It would have to gain some pretty hefty latitude for that trough to lift it out...the GFS has been too fast with development and gaining latitude for the past 3 days. We should already have Danielle by now if the trusted the GFS 2 days ago...

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z 500mb Vorticity @ 138 Hours


18Z 500mb Vorticity @ 120 Hours

[Weatherfreak000]

I know there is error sometimes in the models....BUT not only would the models have to do a total 180 for this to be a threat to land (and inside 144hrs, thats not going to happen even if the troughs are overdone)

We have what maybe 2000 miles of room for error, I'd personally still expect recurve even if it got quite alot further west then progged!
I've already said I think the models are too far east as well by the way, thats why I think Bermuda is at real risk, but we are a very very long way away from even a hint at a landfall...not even one ensemble member from the GFS gets close and none of the other models get close either.

Weatherfreak000...I'm not jumping the gun my friend...the models ALL show EXACTLY the same picture...I really don't see why people are denying the total agreement!

Remember you posted this this morning KWT? And now the Euro has a land threat......as I said...jumping the gun kills you in the tropics.

[SouthFloridawx]

A trough to the East of Nova Scotia isn't as strong as it was last night.

Am I doing that right? I want to compare the run from last night @ 00Z to today's 18Z run. So I would subtract 18 hours from last nights, if I wanted to view the same time frame? Only it's 18 hours earlier, because 18 hours have surpassed... Why is this so hard!!!

[KWT]

[

Remember you posted this this morning KWT? And now the Euro has a land threat......as I said...jumping the gun kills you in the tropics.

Yeah its one model for one run and the ECM did weaken it down to a TD...sure if that were to happen then fair enough as I said it could very well miss the trough, its not a huge weakness...if this one gets close to hurricane strength though the GFS solution shows exactly what will happen...and FWIW the GFS looks perhaps even a smidge weaker with the trough then even the ECM at 96hrs...

I want to see at least two more ECM runs show a similar evolution before I get too interested in, coul just as easily be an outlier as anything else.

However your right things are still wide open, I may have jumped the gun but the weight of the models are still heavily on the recurve idea.

Oh and FWIW, the eCM moves WNW until 96hrs when it starts to weaken down to 1013mbs and guess what, thats when the westerly motion happens...

I'm not suggesting a ridge won't build in, pretty clear it will now but the system could be up at 30N by the time that happens if the models are right.

One thing to watch, if this one takes a long time to get going and stays rooted to the spot, chances of a threat to land massivly surge up given the change in pattern.