Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

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KWT
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#61 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 19, 2010 12:54 pm

Flaring up nicely but once again too little too late, could possibly develop a weak system in the BoC IMO...
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#62 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 19, 2010 2:30 pm

Vorticity increasing near the surface and decent Convergence and Divergence. No real model support.

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#63 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 19, 2010 3:30 pm

Some more convection today...getting a bit more active in the W. Carribean.
Development would probably be slow to occur if at all.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#64 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 19, 2010 6:50 pm

Whats up with all this wind?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#65 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 19, 2010 6:55 pm

Sunset on the Western Caribbean...

Image
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#66 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 19, 2010 7:08 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looks like a little mid level turning.

That buoy above is now

ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#67 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:37 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

pretty low?

Image

And the visible sure shows a spin but its moving fast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#68 Postby lonelymike » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:49 pm

What coulda been seems to be the story for the WCarib systems this year.
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#69 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:49 pm

Looks like shear did this one in Karl. What I find interesting is that guidance keeps suggesting the W Caribbean and W GOM are very favorable for future development. Maybe some good swells to catch as well. :wink:
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Re: Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

#70 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:56 pm

lonelymike wrote:What coulda been seems to be the story for the WCarib systems this year.

thats a fact!


srainhoutx wrote:Looks like shear did this one in Karl. What I find interesting is that guidance keeps suggesting the W Caribbean and W GOM are very favorable for future development. Maybe some good swells to catch as well. :wink:


I keep watching this buoy if it shows strong se winds for 24 to 48 hrs the S. Padre jetty is really fun.
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#71 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:05 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

<snip>
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#72 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:10 pm

Low shear, but also hardly any convection. Don't think this one will go. Map from UW-CIMSS TCTrack with sat, shear (yellow lines), vorticity (orange lines), obs.

Image
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