ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Ah actually scrap that I misread the image above lol, sorry!

LOL, that's what I thought. I'm like, "I haven't seen any TCFA".

[KWT]

The NHC 5 day forecast here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... 5_1200.png

Moving NW as well...

[lonelymike]

Makes sense. I love the ECM as much as anybody but sometimes it does have some quirky runs like the 12Z.
With a couple of invests in the WPAC and one in the EPAC looks like things are starting to heat up a bit.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Stays at 40%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[wxman57]

The Euro has been too far west with almost all forecasts this season. No reason to think that's changed on the 12Z run.

[Typhoon_Willie]

My question is if there is a delay in development how would that affect the future track of the 95l?

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM EDT TWD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2353.shtml?

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC NEAR
11N27W THAT REMAINS THE FOCAL POINT OF A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH
S OF 14N BETWEEN 18W-36W. WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY
UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
MINIMAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM
06N-14N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

[gatorcane]

My question is if there is a delay in development how would that affect the future track of the 95l?

I think it is fair to say if development is delayed or it moves more slowly through the MDR on a W or WNW heading, it could mean a more westerly track.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks Gatorcane. I had seen in the TWO that the convection had diminished and so that is why I asked. I guess we will monitor it's development in regards as to possible future tracks.

[KWT]

The Euro has been too far west with almost all forecasts this season. No reason to think that's changed on the 12Z run.

Yeah I do agree with that, though this time its not so much the track that doesn't make sense its why the ECM keeps this system a weak system...

If it takes long enough though the upper trough could end up leaving this one behind and if the system picks up less latitude then expected then you never know I wouldn't like a sysem at 20N and maybe 50W but with a upper high trying to build in to its N/NW...

Still as everyone know now, I've been on the recurve boat for a long time now...

[KWT]

Convection really weakening at the moment whilst the Vort region to the west remains convectivly active but is moving off to the west at a decent clip whilst our Vort region thatg we are watching at the moment, 95L just sits there and stews.

Maybe the eCM idea of it not really getting too strong may come off, lets wait and see.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Convection really weakening at the moment whilst the Vort region to the west remains convectivly active but is moving off to the west at a decent clip whilst our Vort region thatg we are watching at the moment, 95L just sits there and stews.

Maybe the eCM idea of it not really getting too strong may come off, lets wait and see.

No. The fact that it is the diurnal minimum as well as it is trying to detach from the ITCZ is what is attributing to the convective wane. This still has great potential to become a major hurricane.

[KWT]

Oh I agree just trying to think of reasons why the ECM doesn't strengthen much, though it should be noted we are actually now decently past Dmin in this part of the world, we had sunset a good 4-5hrs ago now so it should be in theory on the way up...

Still sometimes these multi-vortex systems do struggle to pull together as the energy gets split various ways rather then focus on one system, but even so I'm more keen to agree with a major hurricane then the ECM idea of a another 30-40kts system!

[Steve H.]

Look at what the Euro does at the end of the run. It keeps the system weak, then it gets under a building high pressure system that takes it towards the SW Atlantic. I don't like that solution at all. But previous solutions didn't make sense for this time of year. What scares me is that this one does. I know it's early, but this one could end up being a serious threat to the CONUS.

[supercane]

Good SSMI image over area from a few hours ago shows no significant organization yet near NHC low near 11N 27W:

[gatorcane]

Yeah 40% is a good bet here. Doesn't look like it is any hurry to develop. As long as it does this, westward bound it goes.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00z ATCF Best Track/Center Fix

AL, 95, 2010082100, , BEST, 0, 111N, 271W, 25, 1009, DB,

[MiamiHurricanes10]

TAFB at T1.0.
SAB at T1.0.

Data from 23:30 UTC onwards.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Everyone seems set on the area in the middle around 11.0 26.0 being the area to develop but the area to it's west at 12.0 and 35.0 has maintained it's convection by far the best. Didn't someone earlier post a vorticity map showing vorticity at three different positions in this area of disturbed weather? Is it possible two systems could form, the one at 35.0 and the one now at about 15.0?

[KWT]

Nah it doesn't look anymore organised then it was before and convection is weak still so no reason to up it from 40%...but give it time, it'll get there in the end for sure!

The longer it takes the further west it will get as Gatorcane said...the whole gyre isn't going to move much mind you until it finally manages to tighten itself up though I reckon.

ps, that system at 35W probably doesn't have anything at the low level, Aric earlier posted an image where he showed what was happening was at most a surface trough, which for sure could close but who knows...BUT the ECM was showing a dual system for a little while a few days ago.