ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Vortex]

The facts are we have a slowly organizing system with the potential at some point to reach at least cat 3 staus. Troughiness along the east coast of the US will be replaced by moderate/strong ridging indicated by all the globals in a weeks time...As is usual timing is everything and the longer this system meanders and remains weak the greater the chances it gets caught underneath the ridge and bends back west....I was sold on recurvature as of yesterday but right now I just think it's likely. I'm very interested in the 00z globals....

[cycloneye]

Looks anemic right now.

[supercane]

ASCAT slightly to the east:

[Dean4Storms]

This looks days away from TC formation, too elongated and convection is not organizing much at all. The NHC is only going 40% for the next 2 days and if that turns out to be the case it could be even longer so then you have to give some credence to less latitude gained in the short term at least 3 days out which could make all the difference in feeling any weakness. I'm leaning toward getting caught under the ridge much like the ECM portrayed at the 12z run.

[Nimbus]

We don't even know which part of this system is going to spin up and at what position yet. The upper air pattern may be changing in that the TUTT and strong fronts we have seen coming off the east coast earlier in the season may be weaker. Any weakness in the ridge would allow a developing system with some depth to gain quite a bit of latitude though. If this area develops into a major hurricane it might pump up the ridge but its kind of early to speculate when we don't even have a clear LLC to track.

[Blown Away]

Looks anemic right now.

What do you think Luis? Are you sold on a recurve?

[cycloneye]

What do you think Luis? Are you sold on a recurve?

Believe it or not, I am at the 50/50 camp about if this is going to finnally develop or not as things stand at the moment. Lets have a true LLC first and then we can have an idea of where it may track.

[HURAKAN]

This season is as interesting as seeing grass grow ... lets see when the switch is turned to on.

[cycloneye]

This season is as interesting as seeing grass grow ... lets see when the switch is turned to on.

And still the first advisory is not comming anytime soon.

[blp]

I am right with you on that... how hard has it been to just get an LLC to develop. We have 67 pages on the TT thread and 9 pages on the Active thread for a total of 76 pages and nothing to show for it. If this takes another two days to get going we will be at 100 pages. That has to be a record on this board.

Lets have a true LLC first and then we can have an idea of where it may track.

[HURAKAN]

This season is as interesting as seeing grass grow ... lets see when the switch is turned to on.

And still the first advisory is not comming anytime soon.

yeah, still don't feel any enthusiasm.

[cycloneye]

If I was a forecaster at NHC doing the 2 AM TWO, I would go down in the % to 20, but that is only my opinion.

[Blown Away]

If I was a forecaster at NHC doing the 2 AM TWO, I would go down in the % to 20, but that is only my opinion.

I was thinking 20-30% and 95L continues to develop slower than the models predict but the models still overwhelming in a recurve? So the weaker 95L goes more west, you would think a few models would call for a weaker/west solution. The ECMWF model was silly going north of 20N before 45W then going west for 1200+ miles.

[SoupBone]

If I was a forecaster at NHC doing the 2 AM TWO, I would go down in the % to 20, but that is only my opinion.

This season has been pure boring insanity...is that even possible?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I'm thinking maybe Tuesday or Wednesday of next week it will become a depression, but I don't think it will become one in the next 48 hours, based upon how it looks now....I wouldn't be suprised if they drop the percentage to 20% on the next TWO, or maybe they will wait until morning...

[StormClouds63]

2010 season requires patience ... patience, and more patience. Will we ever see an advisory which contains the phrase "... conditions favor rapid
intensification."?

Back to 95L ... I thought Monday it might be named ... probably too an early estimate. I think for the time being it stays code orange.

If this fizzles, what is there left for us impatient trackers to do? Perhaps we should instead be predicting when the first cold front will clear the contiguous U.S.

[WeatherGuesser]

2010 season requires patience ... patience, and more patience. Will we ever see an advisory which contains the phrase "... conditions favor rapid intensification."?

If this fizzles, what is there left for us impatient trackers to do? Perhaps we should instead be predicting when the first cold front will clear the contiguous U.S.

1) Hopefully not.

2) Find a hobby that doesn't involve loss of life and massive property damage?

[Florida1118]

2010 season requires patience ... patience, and more patience. Will we ever see an advisory which contains the phrase "... conditions favor rapid intensification."?

If this fizzles, what is there left for us impatient trackers to do? Perhaps we should instead be predicting when the first cold front will clear the contiguous U.S.

1) Hopefully not.

2) Find a hobby that doesn't involve loss of life and massive property damage?

I highly doubt they meant rapidly intensification as it approaches land. Lets Chill out. Its been said alot, no one wants death or destruction. Anyway I think this is going to be much slower than earlier thought...

[summersquall]

2am: still 40%

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[fci]

I love the "knee jerk" reactions here on the board.
Wxman says he expects development within 48 hours and 6 hours later when nothing happens people are ready to give up on the system.
I believe in waiting to see what happens and not reacting so much to the natural ebbs and flows that these systems go through.
Just because 95L is not rapidly developing right this minute does not at all discount the prevailing thought that this will recurve and nothing concrete tells me to rethink the forecast.
Patience, my friends.
95L is SO FAR away that there will be days and days for it develop and then recurve.