ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[USTropics]

One thing remains clear after this run, if this were to take its sweet time moving west, staying relatively weak in the short term, it's possible it misses the northerly influence associated with the trough, and instead slows down in response or adjusts just slightly to north. After that, it appears a pretty decent high pressure system forms over the NE United States.

180 hours


216 hours

[KWT]

Agreed UStropics, its not as clear vut as I thought it might have been this morning as weatherfreak correctly points out.

Still much is going to depend on its strength, if this gets to hurricane strength I'd be mightly surprised if it doesn't recurve...

The 12z ECM looks like a classic sleeper storm to me, the type that sneaks up then explodes in your face so to speak!

[USTropics]

Given expected conditions and the current steady development, I still feel strongly that this system will deepen considerably and consequently be kicked north by the trough. However doubt is starting to creep in, especially after seeing competing vorticies for the next 48-72 hours in the 18z GFS run along with the 12z ECMWF run showing a weak system heading pretty much straight west (which is not a scenario I would want to see). A couple days ago the models trended west for a few runs, only to quickly swing back to a strong recurve, so I'm not going to buy into a few runs (at this time, only the ECMWF) but the scenario is there. One thing is for sure, this looks to be a very entertaining (and hopefully harmless) long tracker. Additionally, the steering pattern suggested by the GFS after this system departs is worrisome (I know it's forecasted 200+ hours out, but it has been hinting at this for quite a few runs now and is in correlation with other indicating factors).

[KWT]

I think you've just pretty much summed up my feelings on the models tonight, the fact the ECM did trend westwards is interesting but thats more to do with the fact its a very weak system that just the reduced troughing alone...but for sure if there is one thing that I'd never feel too confident about, its trying to call intensity.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it is going to come down to timing. That trough that scoops up future Danielle leaves behind a very big ridge that builds in down the Eastern CONUS and into the W. Atlantic. Should Danielle take her sweet time, it could certainly get trapped under this ridge and bend back to the west. 18Z also tends to overdo troughs and lifts ridges out too quickly:



The NAVY model shows the ridge building across the Eastern CONUS towards the end:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The 18z HWRF is being unrealistic in turning 95L into a hurricane by 72 hours, the 18z GFDL does the same.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, based upon that last model map at 216 hours, this is it for August....We better enjoy the development of this one, as models are leaning towards nothing else forming for the rest of this month....

At least we will have our 4th storm in August and we won't have to wait until September to get it....


This will be fun to track though. I'm glad it's moving west before it turns north though, as this will allow more time
to track this.

[KWT]

Wow 72hrs and a hurricane, jeez that is agressive it has to be said, with this type of cyclonic gyre it may take that long to get this upto say 45kts...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP just shy from cat 3 status.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 210040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100821  0000   100821  1200   100822  0000   100822  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  27.1W   11.6N  28.4W   12.1N  29.9W   13.1N  31.8W
BAMD    11.1N  27.1W   11.6N  28.7W   12.2N  30.6W   12.9N  33.0W
BAMM    11.1N  27.1W   11.7N  28.6W   12.3N  30.3W   13.1N  32.5W
LBAR    11.1N  27.1W   11.7N  29.1W   12.6N  31.9W   13.4N  35.1W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100823  0000   100824  0000   100825  0000   100826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  34.4W   17.7N  42.1W   19.0N  49.2W   21.1N  51.5W
BAMD    13.7N  35.5W   16.2N  40.8W   20.8N  46.0W   25.4N  51.2W
BAMM    14.2N  35.0W   17.0N  41.7W   19.4N  48.1W   22.1N  51.4W
LBAR    14.2N  38.6W   14.9N  45.7W   15.9N  50.1W   23.3N  52.1W
SHIP        65KTS          86KTS          92KTS          95KTS
DSHP        65KTS          86KTS          92KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  27.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  26.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  24.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

When you see that plot it really show just how much of a total outlier the ECM actually is...not a single model or GFS ensemble member is close to the ECM and where it ends up!!

[Wx_Warrior]

Here's hoping that was a bunk run!

[vacanechaser]

When you see that plot it really show just how much of a total outlier the ECM actually is...not a single model or GFS ensemble member is close to the ECM and where it ends up!!

well for one thing, if you look at those model plots of the 00z model run just above, you should notice that they take the system off to the west north west almost right away... looking at a loop to me, it seems to be moving west... not wnw... so to me, they may need to be thrown out.... just a thought.... will be able to see it better tomorrow on sat images





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Blown Away]

When you see that plot it really show just how much of a total outlier the ECM actually is...not a single model or GFS ensemble member is close to the ECM and where it ends up!!

well for one thing, if you look at those model plots of the 00z model run just above, you should notice that they take the system off to the west north west almost right away... looking at a loop to me, it seems to be moving west... not wnw... so to me, they may need to be thrown out.... just a thought.... will be able to see it better tomorrow on sat images


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I hear you, but the 00z models are a pretty convincing recurve. The BAMS have 95L as a TD in 12 hours and I just don't see that, so maybe a weaker 95L goes more west in the near term?

[UpTheCreek]

When you see that plot it really show just how much of a total outlier the ECM actually is...not a single model or GFS ensemble member is close to the ECM and where it ends up!!

Thankfully, eh? Otherwise, some of us would be eating a mighty large feast of crow salad!

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane in 72 hours isn't all that unrealistic, since Fred last year rapidly intensified in the area ahead and conditions now are much more favorable than they were then.

If it develops, and it should, my guess is a peak of Category 4.

[Dean4Storms]

In 24 hours a 40kt Tropical Storm indicated by the tropical models, just don't see it!!!

[StormClouds63]

Wow, based upon that last model map at 216 hours, this is it for August....We better enjoy the development of this one, as models are leaning towards nothing else forming for the rest of this month....

At least we will have our 4th storm in August and we won't have to wait until September to get it....


This will be fun to track though. I'm glad it's moving west before it turns north though, as this will allow more time
to track this.

CZ:

You noticed the same thing ... this is it for August according to the long-range models. If this doesn't develop, there's nothing on the horizon. Fish or not, 95L is the only game in town.

[blp]

The lesson to be learned is that until you get a defined circulation center it is difficult to have faith in the models. If the trend continues to show delayed development, it is only a matter of time before that weakness closes up and this is too far away to be swept up. I think a lot of us are eager to see the Euro tonight to see if this was a fluke run. Man if only the Euro could come out at midnight like the GFS..... only in a perfect world.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z 54h

[Wx_Warrior]

84h