ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Meso]

I think it's important to remember that even if one does want death and destruction or one of those, that is entirely their own decision. Thoughts cannot cause a hurricane, it would happen regardless. And while it may be distasteful, it is within their rights. Most of my hobbies involve death and destruction, and while I don't enjoy death or people's suffering, I find landfalling storms much more interesting as an historic event and witnessing it, as I know many other members do too..

But to remain more on topic:

I think it's going to take a while to get it's initial core together, as we've seen with like every storm this year, the initial process of creating a tight, stacked pressure gradient has taken forever or not been existent at all. If this thing can spend another few days building on its convection and finally get a proper core going, I think it has the potential for steady strengthening thereafter, it's the initial phase that may be the problem.

[ROCK]

I love the "knee jerk" reactions here on the board.
Wxman says he expects development within 48 hours and 6 hours later when nothing happens people are ready to give up on the system.
I believe in waiting to see what happens and not reacting so much to the natural ebbs and flows that these systems go through.
Just because 95L is not rapidly developing right this minute does not at all discount the prevailing thought that this will recurve and nothing concrete tells me to rethink the forecast.
Patience, my friends.
95L is SO FAR away that there will be days and days for it develop and then recurve.

whos knee jerking? and a recurve is not set in stone just yet....the fact is every hour it takes to develop the more west it goes. With that you can throw out most of the models that suggest organization in the short term...

[fci]

I love the "knee jerk" reactions here on the board.
Wxman says he expects development within 48 hours and 6 hours later when nothing happens people are ready to give up on the system.
I believe in waiting to see what happens and not reacting so much to the natural ebbs and flows that these systems go through.
Just because 95L is not rapidly developing right this minute does not at all discount the prevailing thought that this will recurve and nothing concrete tells me to rethink the forecast.
Patience, my friends.
95L is SO FAR away that there will be days and days for it develop and then recurve.

whos knee jerking? and a recurve is not set in stone just yet....the fact is every hour it takes to develop the more west it goes. With that you can throw out most of the models that suggest organization in the short term...

I respectfully disagree with you here.
An hour in the life of a tropical system that is currently by the Cape Verde Islands is so small in it's life; merely a "blip".
Many get so mesmerized by these systems that they take every nuance so seriously and project it out to the future of the system so dramatically. Invariably, the prediction and forecasts by the experts come pretty close to what actually happens.
So, when Wxman (or another Pro like him) makes a statement about 12 hours ago that he is about 100% confident that the system will develop into at least a TD in 48 hours, I don't watch every satellite frame and change my thoughts based on what happens for a few hours.
As for "knee jerking"; read back through the thread (and most threads) and see how much people vacillate in their predictions based on subtle changes. Seems pretty close to "knee jerking" to me.
And I am NOT referring to you here! I read your opinions and value them. I am not really referring to any one person in particular, I am just generally referring to the tenor of the posts. As ebbs and flows occur in development, as they always do; the comments (in my opinion) don't ebb and flow, they knee jerk back and forth.
It's a good thing that the models don't knee jerk based on a few hours.
And I totally agree that nothing is carved in stone here, however at this time; it seems the consensus that this system will recurve. Of course if days go by and the development does not occur, as forecasted; THEN you can throw out what the models are yielding today.
That's just how I see it!

[aerology]

2010 season requires patience ... patience, and more patience. Will we ever see an advisory which contains the phrase "... conditions favor rapid intensification."?

If this fizzles, what is there left for us impatient trackers to do? Perhaps we should instead be predicting when the first cold front will clear the contiguous U.S.

1) Hopefully not.

2) Find a hobby that doesn't involve loss of life and massive property damage?

You could always assist in building heated waterway shelters for manatees in Florida to keep them from going extinct in the next three winters...

[WeatherGuesser]

95L is SO FAR away that there will be days and days for it develop and then recurve.

Agreed. This is just in the "Let's keep an eye on it" category, but not much more. I don't think much about them until they get to about 55 or 60 West and have a primarily westward track.

[ColinDelia]

Just to clarify wxman57 said didn't say "in 48 hours". he said 100% or near 100% ( it's the middle of night I'm not gonna look for it) over the lifetime of the storm, not in 48 hours

[ColinDelia]

The area at 10N 32.5W looks more impressive than the other areas ATM

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity

[KWT]

Hmmm this is a very niteresting problem for 95L...its just sharing its energy between too many different regions, I mean therer are 3 different competing regions and thats never a good thing for developmental chances.

Thats just a mess, if anything comes from that it'll ve good, not saying it won't develop because I think it will in the end but its really6 got to concentrate on ONE region not 3-4!!

[ColinDelia]

This is an hour later than the last image I posted. I wonder how the models would change as far as track forecast in the event the area near 10, 32 developed.

[KWT]

The stronger Vort is still off to the east though, but if it can just develop one region then it'll probably develop.

I suspect this is why the ECM suddenly trended downwards in strength on its 12z yesterday, it became obvious it had too many different circulations trying to develop.

A difficult birth this one!

[TampaFl]

Hmmm this is a very niteresting problem for 95L...its just sharing its energy between too many different regions, I mean therer are 3 different competing regions and thats never a good thing for developmental chances.

Thats just a mess, if anything comes from that it'll ve good, not saying it won't develop because I think it will in the end but its really6 got to concentrate on ONE region not 3-4!!

KWT, this reminds me of what it looks like with some of the developement phases that typhoons go through in the Pacific - large envelopes of moisture ect.

[djones65]

I think ColinDelia may be correct... In my opinion if you look at the visible imagery carefully I can see low level cumulus lines heading east to west north of a partially exposed low level circulation near 10.8N and 31.0W. It appears to be under some moderate to strong upper level northeasterly shear which is apparent based on the satellite signature with all of the convection SW of the center. In my opinion the low level circulation is better defined or better organized than yesterday, but the convection is sheared to the southwest, so I don't believe development is imminent. In addition, there is a broad low pressure area just over the southeast Cape Verde islands near 14.5N and 22.5W and it seems to be encountering mid level dry air from the Saharan air layer. There may be some slight Fujiwhara interaction ongoing with a north and northeast "force" being placed on 95L resulting in a due west or even just very slightly south of west motion over the past 24 hours while there is a southward "force" being placed on the motion of the low pressure area further east near the Cape Verde islands resulting in it moving northwestward. The low pressure area moving towards the Cape Verde islands will likely be encountering increasingly dry mid level air from the SAL as well as somewhat cooler waters that far north off the African coast so I would expect this low to weaken, but only slowly.
This reminds me a lot of a scenario in middle August 1980 where tropical storm Bonnie and TD #4 developed within a broad monsoon trough. Bonnie took several days to evolve while the NHC initially ignored the circulation to its northeast. Bonnie unexpectedly moved nearly due north along 35W longitude and TD#4 was classified while located about 450 miles northeast of Bonnie. I believe the date was 14-17 August 1980. To me they are very similar analogs to look at.

In my opinion, 95L will need about 36 hours until it can find its way near or out of the western end of the monsoon trough west of 36W before it will be able to sustain adequate inflow without having to share it with the trough and low pressure area about 650 miles to its east northeast. So, we need more patience... Obviously, its future track is completely uncertain, but the evolution of the US East coast trough and potential low pressure system over the Northeast will give a good clue. If the trough and low is flatter and weaker then I believe we will have to watch 95L very carefully, and if the trough and low is deeper or stronger than I imagine the mid level flow will be amplified enough to allow 95L to eventually turn out to sea.

[ColinDelia]

30%

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[cycloneye]

The circle is now larger.

[canes101]

I'd give this one a 100% chance of developing (beyond 48 hrs) now. It's about as sure a thing as we ever see out there. Still looks most likely to be a fish, but I don't trust the long-range models' forecast out there as far as the strength of the ridge to the north.

He said beyond 48 hours

[ColinDelia]

The GFS has persisted in not developing this until just about 54 hours in the future for a few days. It seems that as long as there are 2-3 areas of vorticity embedded in an elongated area that model takes a little longer than 48 hours to combine them into one area and form an actual depression. Not saying that is some sort of reality - only that as far as that model is concerned it will probably always about that long to develop this until there is some actual improvement in organization.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082112, , BEST, 0, 106N, 310W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Very interesting the change of the best track position foward in longitude and down in latitude.Is now located at the biggest area of convection.

[ColinDelia]

Here is the vorticity from what eventually became Isabel as one example of how such an elongated area eventually consolidates and forms a depression.
The first image is from Sep 1, 2003. A depression forms on Sep 6.

[Tommedic]

I don't post as much as I used to. But I was wondering from some of the more experienced professionals, is there any way for NOAA to send there research aircraft over the CV area for detailed analysis to evaluate the formation of a storm and then determine better methods of getting better info in future to better prpeare for significant storm formations based on real data rather than just models. It just seems that there is a dead area of limited info to better decide when to designate resources for a system. I tend to think that we will see a consolidation of the disturbed weather and then when a real center can be determined then the models will be able to get a good handle.