Elsewhere in the tropics
........The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a another tropical depression of the coast of Africa seven days from now. The GFS model predicts a possible subtropical depression may form off the coast of Virginia 5 - 6 days from now and move northeast towards New England.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1582
Next these interesting excerpts from the HPC Extended Forecast Discussion:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010
VALID 12Z MON AUG 23 2010 - 12Z FRI AUG 27 2010
.........THE LONGWAVE MEAN PATTERN STARTS OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH MEAN
TROFS ALONG EACH COAST AND ENDS UP PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. IN THE
INTERIM...A MAJOR SYS WILL CROSS THRU THE POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR
THE US CANADIAN BORDER....WHILE A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS S OVER THE
NEW ENG AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ....CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SUN/MON DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING NEEDED
RAIN TO PARCHED AREAS OF NY/NEW ENG AS IT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TEMPS AS LOW AS -12C NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE 500MB UPPER LOW MAY PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY AS
WELL ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE......
..........CONSENSUS OF THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORTS
OUR EARLIER CONTINUITY EXCEPT THAT SPREAD REMAINS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENG AREAS DAYS 3-4...AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW DAYS
6-7.THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE IN
LIGHT OF NEW GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT FAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS. THE
DETERMINISTIC 12Z/20 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC UPPER LOW...AND
IS JOINED IN THIS REGARD BY THE 12Z/20 UKMET AND NAM.
FOR MON-WED...THE AMPLIFIED 850-500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
TO MID ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A LOW NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MOVEMENT IS SLOW AS IT IS FLANKED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES
BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC/NY/NEW ENGLAND.......
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
And finally this from NWS Caribou, ME (my, more or less, local area):
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201851
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
251 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010
.......LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE CONCERNS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUE/WED. THIS IS
RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE IN THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS...GEM
AND ECMWF ARE ALL NOW FORECASTING THE LOW TO PUSH NORTH AND OVER
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MANY TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
REMAIN. AT THE MOMENT...THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK HAS MODERATE TO
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS A RESULT.....
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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