11:30 TWO from TPC:2 areas mentioned CV wave and W carib

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

That area in the western caribbean I think JB mentioned something about caribbean but if Steve H,ameriwx2003 or anyone who has access to JB'S forecast you can post what he said about it.

[chadtm80]

Now I know there is no reason at all for worrying yet, but why say NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION..??? Isnt a closed low and convection signs of tropical formation??

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS
TIME BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[mitchell]

"The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will work its way into the Gulf the next few days, and that is closest potential for new development at this time. I suspect next week at this time, the Atlantic will be very active. "

-JB

[cycloneye]

Well chad the wording changes a lot in these outlooks as you know but the important thing is to watch the sat pics and then you will know first hand what a system is doing.

[Scott_inVA]

Here's the 288 hr GFS:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/gfslr/tpptmslp/plt9.gif
That's from the 15/06Z GFS...the 12Z has pulled it more to the west...just off shore of The OB. Overall it has been consistent this will fish... but it gets darn close to the pier.

1. That's along way off...Aug 27.

2. It's the GFS. Ill be careful not to bash as the AVN was good MR-LR last year and the GFS has been great this week over the CONUS as well.

Scott

[chadtm80]

Ya, nice to have models out that far, but Definatly dont count on em

[southerngale]

I agree with JB on this: "I suspect next week at this time, the Atlantic will be very active."

Hmmm....he says another Gulf storm? Goodness!